Dem
51
GOP
49
The Washington Post's Aaron Blake has put together a list of the percentages of votes that did not go to Donald Trump in closed Republican primaries, both before and after Nikki Haley dropped out. A closed Republican primary means only registered Republicans could vote, so no ratf**king (except among Democrats who took time to re-register as Republicans). Here is the list:
| Date | State | Non-Trump vote |
| March 2 | Idaho | 15% |
| March 5 | Oklahoma | 18% |
| March 5 | Tennessee | 20% |
| March 5 | Utah | 44% |
| March 6 | Haley drops out | |
| March 19 | Florida | 19% |
| March 19 | Kansas | 25% |
| April 2 | Connecticut | 22% |
| April 3 | New York | 18% |
| April 23 | Pennsylvania | 17% |
| Average | 22% |
The $64,000 question is how many of the non-Trump Republicans were just sending a message and how many find Trump unacceptable? The votes for the former governor when she was still a candidate could be votes for her to be the nominee. But after she dropped out, who were the voters sending a message to? Trump? As in: We don't like you? Maybe after blowing off some steam, these non-Trump voters will all come home on Election Day, but if even 10% of them change horses and vote for Biden in the end (or don't vote), however grudgingly, that could be enough to flip some of the swing states. (V)