Dem
51
GOP
49
A new study from the Rand Corp. suggests that the U.S. is tumbling toward a national decline of the type from which few previous superpowers have ever recovered. The American position is being threatened from both within and without and the decline is accelerating. The left and the right actually agree on this, but they differ completely on the nature of the problem and the nature of a potential solution. That is actually the problem. Throw in an aging population, slowing productivity growth, and the growth of misinformation about everything and you have a toxic soup.
The external threats come from a rising China and a declining respect for the U.S. from dozens of other countries, in part because U.S. policies around the world change with each new administration.
The report cites the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Soviet Union as case studies of dominant powers that failed. Among triggers for failure are luxury, decadence, ossified bureaucracies, military overreach, warring elites and unsustainable environmental practices. Does any of that ring a bell?
Possible solutions would include adopting a problem-solving attitude rather than an ideological one, having good governing structures, and maintaining an elite that looks out for the common good.
It is not hopeless. The report cites two examples where a dominant power did recover. Britain in the mid-1700s was enormously successful. It had built a global empire the envy of every other country. By the middle of the 19th century it was rotting from within. This included the environmental toll of industrialization, the control of politics by a small land-owning elite, and rising inequality. But reform happened, spurred on by people like Charles Dickens and Thomas Carlyle. That bought another hundred years of greatness.
The second example is the United States after the Gilded Age of the late 19th century. The industrial boom created poisonous inequalities, social and environmental damage, and gross corruption. Then Teddy Roosevelt rode to the rescue on his horse with his progressive politics. That eventually led to women's right to vote, winning two World Wars, the Civil Rights Movement, and a booming economy measured over a period of decades.
The message of the study is that America has the tools to stop the decline but it has to use them. If the only thing we are going to do is fight about wokeness, that is not going to do the job and more decline is inevitable. (V)