Dem
51
GOP
49
If the Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan/border bill is truly dead and has no chance of getting 60 votes in the Senate, then the next step in this drama will be Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) trying to get a bill that funds only Israel through the House. He failed once already, but may try again. If he manages it the second time, then it has to pass the Senate. It might not even be brought up for a vote, because Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) wants to keep the pressure on concerning Ukraine, Taiwan, and the border. But now, even if Schumer brings the bill up for a vote and it passes (which it won't if all the Democrats vote against it), it still won't become law, because Joe Biden has now said he will veto a stand-alone Israel bill if it makes it to his desk.
Biden has made it clear that as a bare minimum, he wants aid for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan. If a bill with that aid but no border funding comes to him, he would probably sign it, since that is what he asked for in the first place. The border funding is something the Republicans demanded as the price for the foreign aid. That wasn't his original plan. The Republicans saw the border funding as a poison pill that would keep the Democrats from supporting the bill. They never counted on Biden angering the Latinos in his party by swallowing the poison pill.
At this point it is hard to imagine any scenario the Republicans would agree to, simply because Donald Trump doesn't want Biden to score a win. Maybe the Democrats need to use child psychology on him. They could take the Lankford-Murphy bill and add a section exempting anyone making over $50 million a year from paying federal income tax, arguing that job creators need to be unleashed (even though there are jobs aplenty now). Trump would still order the bill killed, but the Republican megadonors would be mighty angry with him and the congressional Republicans. They might decide to withhold their campaign contributions this year, which would be a win for the Democrats. (V)