Feb.12

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Five Key Elections in February

We are almost to Valentine's Day, but February still holds a number of interesting elections as follows:

• Feb. 13, NY-03 special election: We're rid of "George Santos" and tomorrow we find out who will replace him in the House. The candidates are Tom Suozzi (D), a former county executive, U.S. representative, and failed gubernatorial candidate, and Mazi Pilip, a county legislator and veteran—of the Israeli Defense Forces. Right now the House is 219R, 212D. That means Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) can't tolerate more than three defections on anything. If Suozzi wins (and polls put him slightly ahead in the D+2 district), Johnson won't be able to tolerate more than two defections. That's not a lot of margin for error. Johnson is very religious and is probably going to spend today praying his little heart out for Pilip.
  
  
• Feb. 13, Pennsylvania House election: In 2022, Democrats flipped the Pennsylvania House, winning 102 seats, to the Republicans' 101. Talk about not a lot of margin for error. Then one Democrat resigned, making it 101 to 101. Tomorrow is the special election to fill that seat. Whichever party wins the seat gets to control the chamber. Republicans control the state Senate 28 to 22, but if they also pick up the House, they can send Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) an endless stream of bills to veto. If the Democrat wins the seat, the PA GOP won't be able to do that. The district is in Bucks County, in suburban Philadelphia, in the triangle formed by Philadelphia, Allentown, and Trenton. The Democrat is Jim Prokopiak, a lawyer who is a member of two local boards and is a former town supervisor. The Republican is Candace Cabanas, a former waitress who has never held public office and who says her most important job to date is being a mother. The district leans Democratic. The fact that Republicans put up a mom instead of some local official like a town supervisor suggests that they don't think the seat is winnable. Here is a rundown if you want more on the race.
  
  
• Feb. 13, Local Measures in Washington State: Tomorrow the residents of Renton, a city of 100,000 people just south of Seattle, will decide if they want to increase the minimum wage to $20.29 for large employers (like Boeing) and $18.29 for small employers (like local restaurants). This would make Renton's minimum wage one of the highest in the country. Supporters say it will make life easier for people with dead-end jobs. Opponents say it will make those jobs no longer economically viable and they will cease to exist. Hundreds of other communities in the state also have referenda tomorrow, including levies in 215 school districts and more.
  
  
• Feb 24, South Carolina Republican primary: It's really do or die for Nikki Haley in her home state. If she (miraculously) wins it, she might continue to be quasi-viable until Super Tuesday. If she is crushed in South Carolina, she can stay in if she wants to, but then her only hope is that Trump has a very serious medical crisis and she is the last woman standing. Most likely, it will be de facto the end of the line for her. Losing your home state in a landslide is never a good omen for a candidate.
  
  
• Feb 27, Michigan primaries: The most interesting aspect of the Democratic primary is whether Rep. Dean Phillips (DFL-MN) can beat the 2% he got in South Carolina. After all, Michigan is closer to Minnesota than South Carolina is. If he is wiped out again, maybe he ought to get back to making gelato, which will at least get him some respect. After all, gelato is good stuff. As a candidate, he is useless, has no base, and is just helping Donald Trump. In 2016, the Democratic Party didn't have much use for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), but Sanders and his supporters were at least fighting for things they believed in and thought would be good for the country. None of that applies to Phillips. On the Republican side, this will give Haley another chance to make an impression before Super Tuesday. If she can do well, even after losing South Carolina, it might prop her up for another week. If that fails, there are still Missouri and Idaho (March 2) and North Dakota (March 4). Note that the Republican primary in Michigan on Feb. 27 allocates only some of the delegates. The rest will be picked in a caucus in Detroit 4 days later. This business of a primary followed by a caucus a couple of days later really needs to stop.
  

Anyway, that will wrap up February. Then come the three elections in early March (Missouri, Idaho, and North Dakota), then the axe falls on March 5. (V)