Dem 51
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GOP 49
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Incumbents Are at an Advantage... but Probably Not These Two

The rate at which members of the House are reelected is roughly 85%. That means that just about anyone who stands for reelection has odds that are very, very good. But not everyone. In particular, there are two prominent members who look to be in deep trouble.

First up is Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO), who has two significant liabilities. The first is that she's accused of being a crook, and misusing public funds. Maybe she is guilty and maybe she isn't, but this is her second brush with this sort of trouble, and voters tend to have no problem playing judge, jury and executioner. So, her actual guilt or innocence may not be terribly germane to her electoral prospects, particularly if her current issues are not resolved until 2025.

Her other problem is that, as a member of the Squad, she's quite outspoken, and is often on TV. That doesn't comport too well with the political culture of Missouri. And it also contributes to a general impression that Bush is more a showhorse than a workhorse. Given that her Democratic primary opponent, former prosecutor and judge Wesley Bell, has the opposite reputation, this is a problem for her.

The extent of Bush's problems is indicated by the first major poll of the race, which was released yesterday. It's from a not-great, partisan pollster, so one should take it with a grain or two of salt. That said, the pollster, Remington Research Group, has Bell at 50% and Bush at... 28%. That's a difference of 22 points. It would take a really, really awful pollster to miss the mark by that much. Bush looks to be in deep doo-doo.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the aisle, we've already mentioned that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) is going to be fighting for her political life this cycle. Mace, like Bush, has the problem that she is seen as a showhorse rather than a workhorse. In Bush's case, that might just be a matter of opinion. In Mace's case, it is as close to being a fact as is possible. Her first, second, and third concern each day is getting her face on TV and/or her name in print.

Mace is not a crook, at least as far as we know, but she does also have a second liability. There's little question that Bush is a True Believer, while Mace has developed quite the reputation for shifting positions based on how the political winds blow. In fact, she's acquired a nickname that could be absolutely lethal: The Weathervane. Critics say she goes one direction on Mondays, a different one on Tuesdays, and a third on Wednesdays.

Because the rest of the GOP primary field in SC-01 is up in the air, nobody's polled the race so far. However, The Hill had an item on her prospects yesterday, and it's clear the opposition is substantial and highly motivated. Oh, and the anti-Mace candidate will have the backing of the donor network of former speaker Kevin McCarthy, who thinks Mace is the weakest of the various GOP members who voted to oust him, and who is out for blood.

In short, if you are going to wager on some political futures on PredictIt, you probably don't want to bet on Bush or Mace. That would be about as clever as the guy (Z) knows who just bet $100,000 on the San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl. Oops. (Z)

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