Feb.29

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Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Trump Got Mixed Legal News Yesterday

Donald Trump got some legal news from three different sources yesterday, some good and some bad. First the good news, then the bad news.

• Immunity: The best news for Trump is that the U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear Trump's claim that he is immune to prosecution for crimes he committed as president because, when the president does it, it is not illegal. The hearing will be in the week of April 22. The ruling could be in June, or even later. If just one justice (Sam Alito? Clarence Thomas?) sits on their dissent, it could drag this thing out indefinitely. If Trump loses, he will argue that it is unfair to put him on trial so close to the Republican National Convention. If Judge Tanya Chutkan buys that, he might be able to delay his trial in the coup case until after the election.
  
  In any case, the Supreme Court's decision to hear oral arguments 2 months from now is very good news for Trump. After all, he doesn't care so much about winning or losing. What he cares about is delay, and he got some yesterday. As to the Roberts Court's reputation, well, apparently the members don't care anymore. This should be a simple matter, and even if it isn't, they could fast-track it given the significance. It is very difficult to interpret the slow-play approach as anything other than the conservative justices doing Trump a favor. After all, they could have just ruled that the appeals court did a fine job and there is no need for a review.
  
  If the ruling comes down in June, the trial judge could schedule the trial for, say, August, but then Trump would appeal that, too. If she ruled that a defendant can't appeal a trial date and held the trial anyway, he might decide not to show up and not have his lawyers show up. Would the judge hold the trial anyway? Would she dare hold Trump in contempt of court and put him in jail? Uncharted territory, to say the least.
  
  
• Ballot access: The news out of Illinois was decidedly worse for Trump. There, Cook County Circuit Judge Tracie Porter ruled that Trump participated in an insurrection and per the 14th Amendment is therefore disqualified from being on the March 19 Illinois primary ballot. She ordered his name removed from the ballot. However, she stayed her ruling until the Supreme Court can make a final call on it. Trump has also been banned in Colorado and Maine. A situation in which some states allow him and some ban him is not something the Supreme Court is likely to tolerate. It already heard oral arguments in the Colorado case and is likely to make a decision no later than June for the whole country. The smart money is betting that the justices will somehow weasel out of banning Trump. For example, the Court could rule that Sec. 3 of the 14th Amendment is not self-executing, and Congress must first pass a law defining "insurrection" and specifying whether the president is an officer of the United States.
  Of course, Chief Justice John Roberts (who is not running for the position of leader of the Senate Republicans although he meets one of the key requirements) doesn't want a situation in which the ruling is 6-3 with a bitter dissent signed by the three Democratic women. Getting to 9-0 will test his people management skills to the limit.
  
  
• Bank fraud case: Trump has appealed the penalty of $454 million in his bank fraud case, saying that although he checked under all the couch cushions at Mar-a-Lago for loose change, he couldn't come up with the $454 million. His filing ran 1,800 pages. Did his lawyers seriously think they could snow the appeals judge? If so, it failed. Associate Justice Anil Singh, on the mid-level New York State appeals court, rejected the appeal. However, he did stay one part of Judge Arthur Engoron's ruling. Singh allowed Trump to try to get a loan from a New York bank. Of course, getting a New York bank to loan him half a billion dollars after he was found guilty of defrauding New York banks may not be so easy, even if it is now allowed. Trump has already asked for an en banc ruling. If he loses that, the next step is the New York Court of Appeals, the state's top court.
  
  

  Trump's lawyers decided a good strategy would be to negotiate with the appeals court. They said Trump would be willing to post a $100 million bond instead of a $454 million bond. The judge didn't rule on that, but it seems unlikely the court will overrule Engoron, who argued for his number in a detailed verdict. (V)