Dem
51
GOP
49
While the House is tied in knots over border security, the Senate is moving toward a bipartisan bill. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said that with Trump in the White House, no deal will be possible. Now is the time and members of both parties are working on a bill, with Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) working with Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) to craft legislation that can pass the Senate.
Over at the other end of the Capitol, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has proactively killed the Lankford/Murphy bill, even before it is finished, saying it has to be his way or not at all. The senators aren't taking him very seriously, though, and are still trying to put together a bill that can pass the Senate with a large bipartisan majority. Once that is done, they will confront Johnson with the fact that he can't pass any bill that has a prayer in the Senate and maybe not even a prayer in the House since what the Freedom Caucus wants is not going to get any Democratic votes and maybe not all the votes of the Biden 17.
Some Republican senators are cautiously telling Johnson to pipe down. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) said: "I understand the Speaker has got a very tough job and he's got an unruly constituency of Republicans over there, but it makes no sense to me for us to do nothing when we might be able to make things better and stem the flow of humanity across the border for the next year." (English translation: "Johnson, if no bill passes Congress it will be your fault.") Sen. John Thune (R-SD), the #2 Republican in the Senate, said: "It's not like you have somebody that you've worked through a lot of these types of battles in the past [with]." (English translation: "Johnson is a newbie and has no idea how things get done around here.")
In short, the senators are working on a bill and are likely to pass it and send it over to the House. Then it is Johnson's job to either hold a vote on it or pass some other bill that has a chance to pass the Senate. If he fails, everyone will see whose fault it is.
On the other hand, if Johnson brings the not-yet-written Senate bill for a vote, it will pass with mostly Democratic votes, but there are sure to be three or more Republicans who join them. If Johnson does this, Rep. Eli Crane (R-AZ), a member of the Freedom Caucus, is likely to introduce a motion to vacate the chair. Crane said: "It's extremely frustrating to watch." He predicted that Republicans "will get rolled, just like we always do." What he means is that the Freedom Caucus, which has something like 30 members, can't get bills passed. But the threat is real, as it takes only one member to introduce a motion to vacate the chair and there are certainly three Republicans who will join all the Democrats who will vote to fire Johnson.
Johnson's only viable strategy is to make a deal with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) to bring the Senate bill up for a vote. If it passes, the Democrats would then agree not to vote to vacate the chair. This would absolutely drive the Freedom Caucus stark raving mad, but there is really no other way out for Johnson since he doesn't have the votes for anything unless he works with the Democrats.
However, working with the Democrats will anger Donald Trump, who is opposed to the as-yet-to-be-written Senate bill. Don't ask us how this is going to play out. Your guess is as good as ours. (V)