Dem
51
GOP
49
Why would a progressive female California Senate candidate like Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) root for Donald Trump to crush the only woman who has made it this far in a Republican presidential primary? Once you understand the weirdness that California's top-two all-party primary has created, it makes sense. Currently, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) is leading in the polls and has twice as much money as all the other candidates combined. Also, the biggest newspaper in California, The Los Angeles Times, has endorsed Schiff. He is likely to come in first in the March 5 primary.
Porter and Republican Steve Garvey are battling it out for second place. Whoever comes in second gets to advance to the general election in November. Whoever comes in third goes home without even a booby prize. So if Porter comes in second, she gets to fight another day against Schiff. Schiff would definitely be the favorite in the general election against Porter because most Republicans would probably see him as the lesser of two evils. Still, being on the general election ballot is much better than not being on the ballot.
Now here is where the weirdness comes in. Suppose Trump absolutely crushes Nikki Haley tomorrow in New Hampshire. Then the Republican primary will essentially be over. Trump will easily win Nevada and South Carolina. By March 4, the day before Super Tuesday, the media will be proclaiming that Trump is the Republican nominee. For a California Republican, what's the point of voting on Super Tuesday? Theoretically, a Republican voter could be thinking: "I can go vote for Garvey so he makes it to the November ballot, only to be crushed by Schiff in November. Why bother?" So if Trump ends the Republican presidential contest tomorrow, that will depress Republican turnout in California on March 5, which will help Porter grab second place.
Now consider the reverse case: Haley wins New Hampshire. All of a sudden, there is, at least for a while, something like a real horse race. All the headlines would read: "Can Haley Beat Trump?" Then the California primary, with 169 convention delegates at stake, is very important and California Republicans, whether they are Trumpy or Trumpless, are likely to turn out to vote in the presidential primary. While at the polling station, they are then likely to mark their ballots for Garvey for the Senate. If Republican turnout is high on account of the exciting presidential primary, then Garvey will get more votes and that could be just enough to beat Porter for second place. If she were smart, she would fly to New Hampshire and campaign for Trump today. On the other hand, California progressives might not like that so much, so she'd have to do it in a sneaky way, under the radar. Maybe going door to door disguised as Melania. (V)