Jan.22

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

It's Almost Veep Time

If Trump seals the deal in New Hampshire tomorrow, then the media will begin to focus on who might be veepable. Rich Lowry, editor of National Review, got a head start by publishing his list, even before the voting starts in New Hampshire. He has sorted the possible candidates into three categories: establishment politicians, true believers, and everyone else. He notes that in the modern era, the only function of the running mate is to help the presidential candidate win. Whether the #2 would make a good president is secondary or worse, except if the person is so obviously unqualified that it hurts, rather than helps, the ticket (see: Palin, Sarah). Here is Lowry's take.

• Nikki Haley: The runner-up is always high on the list. Also, Haley could appeal to women, moderates, suburban voters, and maybe even some voters of color who don't especially like Kamala Harris. Haley is a former governor and U.N. ambassador who has run an excellent campaign and who has the résumé to be president. She brings a lot to the table. No one would compare her to Sarah Palin.
  
  But Trump doesn't like her, and that is often all that matters. She has said he lost in 2020 and she is attacking him now. She has said Trump is too old and chaotic to be president. The MAGAites (MAGAonians?) would be outraged by his picking a woman of color, daughter of immigrants, and a member of the GOP establishment. For these reasons, Trump said on Friday that he's probably not choosing Nikki Haley for vice president. He said: "She's not presidential timber. I know her very well. She's not tough enough. She's not smart enough. And she wasn't respected enough. She cannot do this job. She's not going to be able to deal with President Xi. She's not going to be able to deal with Putin." Apparently, there's only room for one person like that on the GOP ticket. After unloading all that, if he does end up picking her, Biden will have a field day saying Trump is losing it after picking someone he thinks so little of.
  
  
• Mike Pompeo: As a former congressman, CIA director, and secretary of state, Pompeo is clearly qualified, especially in foreign policy. On domestic policy, he is plenty conservative. He didn't run against Trump, hasn't attacked him, and left his administration with his head held high. He wasn't involved in any scandals. He could help bring in his home state of Kansas, but Trump probably doesn't need a lot of help there. He'd be a lot like Dick Cheney: a conservative who could be suddenly dropped into the presidency and start functioning in the first 5 minutes. His value to the campaign would be for Trump to be able to say: "I didn't do politics here. I picked someone who is clearly capable of being president right after I ate my last Big Mac."
  
  
• Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC): For the Republicans to pick a Black candidate would be historic. Scott's a nice guy and all, but the reality is that a lot of Republicans don't like Black people. Also, he was a lousy candidate and showing up one time with a "girlfriend" (and a white one at that) isn't going to quell the rumors that all the senators from South Carolina are, um, Friends of Dorothy. We're not sure why Lowry even put him on the list. He brings nothing to the ticket. He tried to butter up Trump on Friday by endorsing him this weekend. Sorry, Tim, it's not gonna work. You're toast. Maybe Lowry was afraid that if he didn't have at least one Black candidate on his list, people would call him nasty names. But Scott simply does not belong on this list.
  

• Kari Lake: Boy, would Trump love her. She is as Trumpy as can be and has some star power. She has drunk gallons, no, make that barrels, of the Kool-Aid. She almost won the gubernatorial race in Arizona in 2022 and might be able to bring in that key swing state. That is a huge upside. No other potential candidate could help bring in a big swing state.
  
  On the other hand, she's not remotely capable of being President of the United States; she's even worse than Palin, who did at least have a couple of years' experience as a governor. Lake's only job in the past 20 years was someone who read the news off the teleprompter on a local TV station. She could also say something really stupid once she was under the Big Microscope and this could scare off the moderates, especially if Trump has any kind of medical incident this year.
  
  
• Tucker Carlson: He would create a media storm like none since Palin. The base would go into a frenzy. Some of them would demand a Carlson/Trump ticket rather than Trump/Carlson. He would be a fantastic campaigner, turning out massive crowds. He'd also be good at fundraising. He's also smart enough that when reporters asked him what newspaper he reads, he could say The Wall Street Journal and everybody would "ooh" and "aah."
  
  But he also has downsides. Like, could he be capable of being president if need be? On that score, he is as bad as Lake. Also, he could easily upstage Trump, and Trump hates that with a passion. And what does he bring to the ticket? The base would go wild, but each one of them gets only one vote, even if they worship both candidates on the ticket. Carlson might help improve turnout a little bit, but people who love him were probably going to vote for Trump no matter what.
  
  
• Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH): He is more of a populist than Trump himself, even if he is a multimillionaire from his book royalties. He would be very popular in MAGAworld and he is smart enough not to upstage Trump. A lot of Democrats and Republican moderates would be worried about him becoming president but the base would be ecstatic about a younger Trump. Ohio has become a red state, so he doesn't bring in a state Trump can't win on his own. Still, the possibility of a true believer on the ticket who has the smarts not to overshadow Trump, might make him a serious candidate for the VP pick.
  

• Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD): The South Dakota governor and former congresswoman is desperate to get out of South Dakota and move somewhere warmer. She is acting very Trumpy and really wants the nod. She's even rumored to be sleeping with a Trump whisperer, Corey Lewandowski, to get some help in getting the veep position. Who knows what else she might do? She's like Palin, but served a much longer time as governor. Additionally, she served 4 years in the South Dakota House and 8 years in the U.S. House. Also important for Trump, she's quite attractive.
  
  On the downside, Noem doesn't bring in a new state. She's very rural and very MAGA and very anti-choice and that may not bring in suburban women. Also, putting her on the ticket would cause every reporter in D.C. to start digging for dirt on the Lewandowski story. Suppose some motelkeeper out in the boonies said he saw them rent a room together and signs an affidavit saying that and passes three lie detector tests. Then what?
  
  
• Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R-AR): She's been the governor of a small red state for a year and is the daughter of a former governor of the same state. Trump endorsed her. Before running for governor, she was Trump's press secretary, where she proved she would lie her face off for him. From Trump's point of view, that is a huge plus. She is also a cancer survivor and she is good at telling that story. Still, that doesn't make her a plausible president.
  
  
• Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA): She has a lot going for her. She was a county treasurer for four terms, then a state senator, followed by lieutenant governor, and then governor. She is clearly presidential material. She is easygoing and Midwestern nice. People like her and she is a good campaigner. She could pull in the grandmother vote, since she is one at 64. She wouldn't make any foolish errors on the trail. She is conservative enough to please the base without being obnoxiously conservative.
  
  She has only one real downside, but it is a biggie. She supported DeSantis during the run-up to the Iowa caucuses. Trump would have a lot of trouble overlooking that.
  
  
• Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY): This is a bit of a wild card. Stefanik wants the slot as much as Noem and has transformed herself from a moderate from upstate New York into a fire-breathing Trumper. She worked as a staffer for George W. Bush and has since been elected to the House five times. She has a bachelor's degree from Harvard, so she is probably smart enough and maybe (barely) experienced enough to be president. She's 39 and also attractive and with Trump, that counts for a lot. If she were single, that would be even better. Then he could break another norm and divorce his wife and marry his vice president while in office. The ultimate power couple.
  
  House members have been picked for the #2 slot before, most recently Paul Ryan and Geraldine Ferraro. It's rare, but not unheard of. Stefanik's main downside is that although she did well embarrassing a couple of university presidents who were called to testify before Congress, she hasn't really been vetted carefully on the national stage. She is trying to please Trump so much that she might say something by accident that didn't play well with the media. Like, for example, calling the 1/6 convicts "hostages." The base ate that up, but pretty much everyone else was horrified.
  

Who did Lowry miss, if anyone? Over at PaddyPower, Vivek Ramaswamy is tied with Stefanik for second place (after Noem). We think that is nuts. Ramaswamy is an obnoxious jerk who would drive away all the moderates and suburban women. Tied in fourth place is Ben Carson. Ben who? Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is also taking some money. Trump is crazy, but he is not that crazy. We think that if Trump wants to pick a solid candidate who wouldn't upstage or embarrass him, Pompeo would be a good choice. If he wants to swing for the fences, then maybe Lake, but that would mean giving up a shot at a winnable Senate seat in Arizona. And with Trump, young and pretty might be irresistible, in which case Stefanik could be the one.

Trump's #2 is important for reasons other than helping or hurting Trump this year. Whoever he picks will likely become a serious candidate for president in 2028, win or lose this time (although keep in mind how well that worked out for Mike Pence). Sometimes the veep candidate understands this all too well and spends a lot of time auditioning for next time, something Trump doesn't like, but has little control over once he makes his choice.

The timing of the pick is important. Trump can and will hint a lot for a few weeks, but that is just to get media attention. Once he has acquired the 1,215 delegates needed to nail down the nomination, he can stop being coy and announce his pick whenever he wants to. An early announcement allows his sidekick to start campaigning and fundraising. That is always useful. On the other hand, with the suspense gone, there won't be news stories every day about "Who will Trump pick?" Of course, it is up to Trump alone to decide when to go public with his choice, assuming he has already made one, which is not certain. He may want to watch the potential veeps a bit more before making the call. (V)