Jan.22

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Candidate Quality Matters

As we note above, Mitch McConnell famously said that "candidate quality matters" in 2022, when some of Donald Trump's picks went down in flames in otherwise winnable races. Will we get repeat performances in 2024 in races where the Republicans nominate someone for the Senate who has a "quality" problem? It could happen. Among the states which have real potential for a "quality" problem are these:

• Arizona: If Kari Lake fails to get Donald Trump to pick her as his running mate, she will stay in the Arizona Senate race and almost certainly get the GOP nomination. If Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) decides to run for reelection, something she hasn't announced yet, it could be a strange race with a popular Democratic representative (Ruben Gallego), Sinema, and Lake. Lake would probably be a weak candidate in that situation. Not many Democrats are likely to support Sinema, since, together with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), she blocked almost all of Joe Biden's big plans. On the other hand, Lake is crazy enough that moderate Republicans who can't stand her will have Sinema to vote for without having to vote for a Democrat. A more moderate Republican wouldn't bleed votes to Sinema. So Lake might have the infamous "candidate quality" problem that a more mainstream Republican wouldn't have. If Sinema doesn't run, moderate Republicans may skip that line on the ballot if they can't stomach the liberal Gallego.
  
  The filing deadline in Arizona is April 8, but as an independent candidate, Sinema would have to collect a large number of signatures to get on the ballot. She can't start to collect them on April 1. It could take weeks, especially since Democrats hate her and Lake-loving Republicans may not want her on the ballot. In other words, the window is closing. If she wants to run, she can't wait much longer about making a decision.
  
  
• Michigan: The retirement of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) has created an open seat in Michigan. Democrats have their candidate already in the form of Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI). She is a powerful fundraiser and has the full backing of the Democratic Party. She first has to win a primary against actor Hill Harper, but that shouldn't be so hard.
  
  The Republican side is a real mess now. Former representatives Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer are already in, along with former Detroit Chief of Police James Craig, wealthy businessman Sandy Pensler and half a dozen others. Former representative Justin Amash is mulling a bid. It will be a real food fight, with all of them except maybe Meijer (and Amash, if he runs) trying to out-Trump all the others. All of them except Meijer are going to try to get Trump's endorsement. This competition will move almost all of them to the far-right and thus produce a candidate with a "candidate quality" problem. Meijer is the scion of a family that owns a large number of supermarkets in the Midwest, so he can self-fund, but he might not be able to get the votes.
  
  
• Montana: Republicans have their candidate in the form of wealthy aerial firefighter Tim Sheehy. The problem is that there is another guy who looks like he wants to run despite the fact that the NRSC absolutely does not want him, namely Freedom Caucus member Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT). But there is no way NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-MT) can stop him if he files to run in the primary. The fire-breathing Rosendale ran against Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in 2018 and lost and Daines is scared witless that he would lose again if he is the nominee. What Donald Trump does here is crucial. If he decides to be pragmatic and backs Sheehy because he could flip the seat, that could seal the Democrats' fate. But if he backs the Trumpiest candidate in the race, Rosendale, then the Republicans could end up with that dreaded candidate quality problem. With West Virginia now a lost cause, Democrats have to win every seat they are defending and Montana is near the top of the list of tough races. If Rosendale carries out his threat and jumps in, the NRSC would have to spend millions of dollars on internal warfare to avoid getting a candidate with a proven record of losing statewide races against an incumbent with a proven record of winning statewide races.
  
  
• Ohio: Ohio is another tough race the Democrats must win. And here, too, Trump could create a candidate quality problem. He has endorsed wealthy car dealer Bernie Moreno. State Sen. Matt Dolan is also running. His father loves baseball, so he bought the Cleveland Indians and renamed them the Cleveland Guardians. Dolan's campaign will also not be wanting for money. The NRSC is officially neutral, but Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose is probably the strongest candidate. With two right-wing multimillionaires in the race, one of them with Trump's endorsement, there is a chance the Republicans will pick a candidate with a "candidate quality" problem, rather than the more electable and better-known LaRose. The NRSC could come to LaRose's rescue, but that would anger Trump, something Daines is scared to do.
  

There are a couple of other races that could end up with candidate quality problems as well, particularly Wisconsin and Nevada, but the incumbent Democrats are probably strong enough to fend off weak candidates. In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) doesn't have a challenger yet, but wealthy businessman Eric Hovde might change that. Republicans seem to love having wealthy businessmen run for the Senate (because that saves the NRSC money), but as a group, their track record is modest. The other Wisconsin senator, Ron Johnson (R-WI), is one of the few exceptions.

In Nevada, the NRSC wants veteran Sam Brown, but Trump is mulling supporting either Jeffrey Gunter or Jim Marchant, both are (probably) unelectable Trumpists. (V)