Jan.25

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Takeaways from New Hampshire

Everyone has had time to digest the result of the New Hampshire primary, so let's see what the takeaways are from different media outlets:

• Trump demonstrated his command of the G.O.P. in a purple state.
• Haley has an incredibly rocky road ahead.
• The old guard of the G.O.P. is a dwindling faction.
• Biden, Democratic grumbling aside, is cruising to renomination.
• Trump's strength may not translate to the general election.

• It looks all but over.
• Haley voters were meh about her, which says something about Trump.
• Exit poll: New Hampshire has fewer election deniers than Iowa.
• Exit poll: 67% of voters oppose a federal law banning abortion.
• Haley's reasons for staying in appear elusive.
• Biden's big win erases any doubt.

• Trump wants Haley out—now.
• Haley says GOP race is far from over.
• Haley's argument: Trump is a loser.
• Warning signs for Trump.
• Biden's general election bid takes shape.

• Trump has a glide path.
• A win that came with warnings.
• Haley is pushing ahead.
• Too little too late?
• Biden's win that doesn't count.

• Trump increases the pressure to end the campaign.
• A warning sign for Trump.
• Governors don't guarantee a win.
• Democrats are still with Biden.

• A prickly path for Haley.
• Red flags for Trump.
• Trump also has strengths.
• No worries for Biden.
• Indies helped Haley.

• Trump cements status as almost certain nominee.
• Biden brushes off primary challenger.
• Haley dealt a blow.
• Trump win highlights divide in GOP.
• Primary season looks short and drama-free.

• The independent vote didn't topple Trump but it should still make him nervous.
• Haley remains undaunted after two bruising losses.
• Biden avoided embarrassment.
• Democrats and Republicans appear ready to turn their attention to the general election.
• Trump's election lie was not as popular in New Hampshire as in Iowa.

There is a lot of agreement here. First, Donald Trump is almost certainly the Republican nominee. Second, Trump didn't do so well with independents, or even with his own party. Third, while Nikki Haley is still in the game, she has a very steep hill to climb. Fourth, Joe Biden is not in any trouble.

The next state up is Nevada, in February. It has both a primary (in which no delegates will be awarded) and then a caucus. Neither candidate is campaigning there and nobody is taking either one seriously. After that comes South Carolina on Feb. 24. That is a long gap. Will Haley hang in there? If Charles Koch keeps shoveling money at her, she probably will, but if Koch gets tired of it, then it will be all over. (V)