Mar.07

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Biden Will Kick Off His Campaign Tonight

The Constitution requires the president to inform Congress of the state of the union from time to time, but does not describe a method or frequency. Many 19th century presidents sent Congress written reports but since the 1930s, it has been a tradition to give a speech to a joint session of Congress. Since the invention of radio, it has also been an address to the American people. When it is given by an incumbent president running for reelection, it has also usually been the kickoff for their reelection campaign. Tonight, Joe Biden will follow tradition and kick off his reelection campaign with the SOTU speech. If you are interested in the history of the SOTU message, here it is.

Biden's speech is basically going to be a campaign commercial and will indicate the themes he intends to push until November. Most likely, he will focus on these three themes:

• The Economy: Biden absolutely has to hit this point and hard. The economy is actually in excellent shape. Unemployment and inflation are near historical lows and the stock market is breaking one record after another, something people can see in their 401(k) statements. The Dow-Jones index closed at 38,712 yesterday and could easily hit 40,000 shortly; it was flirting with 30,000 the day Biden was inaugurated. It's almost a 30% gain already in 3 years. But the popular image of the economy is that it is in the toilet. It is true that prices are higher than they were before the pandemic, but wages are also higher. For some (maybe many) people, wage increases have more than compensated for price increases, but when people look at the price of some staple in the supermarket, all they see is the higher price, not their higher paycheck. It will be up to Biden to hammer on this point tonight.
  
  Biden has plenty of concrete achievements to brag about. There is the CHIPS Act, which will bring semiconductor manufacturing back to America and create jobs in the process. There is the Inflation Reduction Act, which will help deal with climate change and create millions of jobs in the green energy sector in the process. There is the cap on annual drug co-pays for seniors, and much more. Most people are completely oblivious to these laws and Biden will surely talk about how they help millions of people in many ways. This pitch will be aimed at blue-collar workers.
  
  
• Women's Health: This part will be mostly about abortion and the Republicans' efforts to ban it in many states and nationwide if they get the chance. Biden is also likely to mention that Republicans also want to ban many popular forms of contraception because they believe that when an egg finds a sperm it likes, the resulting zygote is the same as a baby and some forms of contraception interfere with the implantation of the zygote, which some extreme Christians view as abortion. For young people, what's going on in Gaza is not good, but banning abortion and especially contraception hits close to home and Biden is going to try to ride this train to victory.
  
  The recent decision of the Alabama Supreme Court that a zygote is a baby is extremely unpopular and causing Republicans to tear their hair out (although Gov. Kay Ivey, R-AL, signed IVF-affirming legislation into law yesterday). Biden is sure to harp on this, too. He could talk about childless couples he has met who are scared they can never have the family they so desire due to the wicked Republicans who hate them. This is low-hanging fruit and Biden is very likely to grab it. This pitch will be aimed at young people and single women generally.
  
  
• Democracy: Donald Trump has said that he will be a dictator for only 1 day. Nice of him. Biden is sure to mention that America is not supposed to have dictators, not even for 1 day. He can point out that Trump has been indicted 91 times in four jurisdictions and is likely a criminal. Furthermore, he has promised revenge on his enemies and has plans to uproot democracy in many ways. This pitch will be aimed at college-educated suburban voters.
  

Will Biden bring up other topics? Sure. Maybe voting rights, the inability of Republicans even to pass a budget, and defending our friends abroad? He will certainly talk about his plans for a second term. Will he push for a law allowing abortion nationwide? How about a comprehensive immigration law combining tighter border security with a path to citizenship for the dreamers who have been in the country for 10 years or who have served in the armed forces? What about reducing the cost of health care? How about tougher enforcement for companies that are price gouging? He might even have some surprises that capture the headlines tomorrow.

Biden will certainly make an implicit or explicit pitch to Haley voters: You are welcome in my big tent. He will undoubtedly praise them for their bravery and dedication to the Constitution and the rule of law and say that their values are his values, too.

But the most important part of the speech will not be what he says, but how he says it. The Republicans' main pitch against Biden is that he is a feeble, demented old man who can barely put his socks on. This is Biden's opportunity to show that he is vital and vigorous, with plans to improve life for Americans in another term. By November, no one will remember exactly what Biden says tonight, but many people will remember the impression he made. Was he a wise, experienced man with a vision for the future or a bumbling, incoherent fool? Footage from the speech could be used by either party, so Biden needs to not only have some high points and applause lines, but has to avoid making any blunders.

The Republican reply will be given by Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL). She has been in public office only a year and is not in a position of power. She has two things going for her: (1) she is an attractive young(-ish) woman and (2) she is not as obnoxious as the other senator from Alabama. No doubt she will contrast her age (42) with Biden's age (81) but probably won't mention Trump's age (77). The Republicans would love to make her the face of the Republican Party, but it's not going to work and her rebuttal to the SOTU will be forgotten in a week. Or an hour. (V)