Mar.13

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Donald Trump: Less Money, Mo' Problems

That's not exactly how Biggie Smalls had it, but then again, Donald Trump has always been one to do things differently.

With the general election campaign underway, Donald Trump has some liabilities that were not particularly present during his previous two runs for the big job, but that have shown themselves this time around. Here's a list of the ones that particularly stand out:

• Age: By the calendar, Donald Trump isn't quite as old as Joe Biden, but he's not far off. In terms of mileage on the brain and on the body, Trump may be so much older that he's lapped Biden. Certainly, for all the talk of Biden's mental decline, Trump is actually the one who more frequently botches his words and otherwise stumbles verbally. That may be because Trump is on stage/on camera more often, but it might also be because Trump has declined further. Or, it could be both. Thus far, there has been relatively little talk about Trump's mental decline (some, but not much). That is probably because his fans are used to it, while the media tends to find other things to talk about. That said, Trump will eventually have to make appearances that are not before a friendly, captive audience. And those could be eye-openers for some people who don't follow him closely.
  
  
• Out of Money, Part I: We've written this several times, but now it's becoming "a story." Trump needs to pay for his lawyers, and he's going to raid his campaign coffers (and the RNC's coffers) as much as he can in order to do so. This will be at least a single whammy, in that it will leave less cash for campaigning. It could well be a double whammy in that donations might dry up if supporters think that their money is going to his lawyers instead of into his presidential bid. One potential byproduct of this that would be very noticeable is that he might have to cut way back on the number of rallies he holds.
  
  
• Out of Money, Part II: Trump needs $500 million in cash to meet his legal liabilities, and he clearly doesn't have it. That means he is going to end up in the debt of some person or entity, or multiple persons or entities, that would benefit from having a "friendly" president in the White House. This does not mean that corruption is inevitable, but it does mean the chances are pretty high.
  
  How does this affect Trump's electability? Well, a big part of his appeal in 2016 and 2020 was that he shot from the hip, and was largely unafraid to say whatever came into his mind. That made him "authentic." But if he's been bought and paid for on some subject, he just can't afford to do that anymore. For example, he has been a longtime critic of TikTok, a position that blends Republicans' hatred of social media and their hatred of China. Trump even tried to ban TikTok via executive order while he was in the White House.
  
  This week, however, Trump met with Jeff Yass, who just so happens to own a big chunk of the company that owns TikTok. In a truly stunning coincidence, Trump then announced that TikTok is great, and that it's actually Facebook that's the enemy of the people. Who knows what Yass offered. Maybe nothing. Maybe a bit of assistance with that $500 million in bonds. Since Yass is worth north of $34 billion, he could make a loan like that without breaking a sweat. And even if there was no funny business here—which is a bit hard to swallow—the fact is that lots of people and entities that would be happy to pay a bribe are thinking that Trump is for sale. For example, Josh Rogin speculates that Trump's China policy might be for sale. What happens when and if Trump can't rail against TikTok, "Jina," and some of his other favorite bugaboos?
  
  
• Need to Win: On a similar point, Trump not only needs money, he also really needs to win. In part, it's an ego thing. In larger part, it's his best (and maybe only) means of staying out of prison. In his previous two campaigns, particularly the one in 2016, winning wasn't nearly as important to him, which freed him to say whatever damn thing came into his mind. These days, he is much more obviously trying to be more "politic." And again, that runs contrary to his "authentic" image.
  
  
• Incumbent Opponent: In 2016, Barack Obama was term-limited, while in 2020, Trump was the incumbent. This is the first time that The Donald has faced an actual sitting president. And the advantage a sitting president has, among other things, is that they can put forward actual policy. In other words, Hillary Clinton can SAY she's going to ask Congress to, for example, cancel student loans, but Biden can actually do so, anytime he wants. That means that Biden has a much more potent arsenal at his command than he had in 2020, or Hillary Clinton had in 2016. And early indications are that he knows how to use it. Take note, for example, of how the Biden campaign maneuvered Trump into announcing his willingness to cut Social Security and Medicare.

We do not believe, in any way, that this is a normal election in which voters who abandon one candidate promptly climb on board with the other. There will be some of that, but not a lot. Much more important for each candidate will be getting their voters to the polls. And Trump, in particular, needs to get his base fired up, so that they show up in huge numbers. The issues here could cause some of his base to lose interest or lose hope, and to just stay home on Election Day. And if so, he's in deep trouble. (Z)