Dem 51
image description
GOP 49
image description

Looking Forward to 2024, Part V: Reader Predictions, Elections Edition

Time did not allow for us to run more reader predictions last week, but now they are back. We have six more sets, so we shall try to get three in this week, and three more next week. Here's a list of the predictions that have run so far:

And now, 10 reader predictions about this year's elections:

  1. E.B. in Seattle, WA: Bob Ferguson (D) will win Washington's gubernatorial election over Dave Reichert (R) by a minimum of 10 points. Ferguson is a popular state AG who won statewide election at least twice, the last time 56-43. Reichert is an empty suit whose only real claim to fame is that he was sheriff when Washington's most notorious serial killer was caught. He takes no real stand on any issue, making him no more than a Generic Republican. Any stances he is forced to take on the 2020 election, abortion, Trump's eligibility for office, etc. are either going to kill him with the Republican base or with the state's few moderate voters. (Potential Bonus Points: 24)

  2. S.B. in Hadley, MA: Joe Biden will win the election, but it will take 10 days or more for the results to be finalized. (Potential Bonus Points: 57)

  3. M.E. in Roanoke, VA: Relative to 2020, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada will flip. Texas will stay red, but be unexpectedly close and arguably enter swing-state territory (comparable relative margin to Michigan or Minnesota). (Potential Bonus Points: 75)

  4. S.H. in Broken Arrow, OK: Biden will land a victory in the Electoral College with only a plurality of popular votes due to third-party candidates (Potential Bonus Points: 69)

  5. R.P. in Brooklyn, NY: In a fit of narcissistic rage, Donald Trump will refer to Taylor Swift as "no-talent" and "not that pretty." Swifties will turn out to vote against Donald Trump in droves, and his poor decision to take on America's most popular entertainer will be cited as the final nail in Trump's coffin after an embarrassing electoral defeat in November. (Potential Bonus Points: 53)

  6. D.C. in Delray Beach, FL: All states will be in the same columns as 2020 with the exception of North Carolina. (Potential Bonus Points: 54)

  7. J.A. in Redwood City, CA: Having lost his bid for re-election, Joe Biden will spend the final weeks of 2024 filling as many vacancies in the federal judiciary as he can. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) will declare California as a sanctuary state for all political refugees, both foreign and domestic; he will also announce his intention to run for president in 2028. Meanwhile, the largest ever wave of immigrants will cross into the U.S., knowing that entering the country after Trump is inaugurated will be much more difficult. (Potential Bonus Points: 84)

  8. D.R. in Charlotte, NC: There will be a physical altercation on the floor of the Republican National Convention. (Potential Bonus Points: 48)

  9. T.B. in Leon County, FL: Donald Trump will not be on the general election ballot in at least one state. (Potential Bonus Points: 77)

  10. C.O. in East Lansing, MI: Massive protests by Republicans (angry at a Trump conviction) will attempt to disrupt the Democratic convention. A large police presence will be sent to prevent riots, but the convention will be made virtual again at the last minute. Republicans will present the police presence as "militarizing the government against its citizens," while simultaneously mocking the Democrats for canceling their convention. (Potential Bonus Points: 87)

If the readers go 10-for-10 here, then they'll earn 1,000 points for 10 correct predictions, along with 628 bonus points for degree of difficulty. That said, there's no way that 10-for-10 will happen, since some of the predictions contradict others.

The next set of predictions will be about Congress. (Z)

This item appeared on Read it Monday through Friday for political and election news, Saturday for answers to reader's questions, and Sunday for letters from readers.                     State polls                     All Senate candidates