Mar.19

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Five More States Vote Today

This year's primaries, which were already pretty low-drama because both parties' presidential nominees had no serious challengers, have become even less interesting now that Joe Biden and Donald Trump have secured a majority of their parties' delegates, and so are now both presumptive nominees. That's not to say there is nothing of interest going on, however, as voters in five more states cast ballots today.

Although they are now largely beside the point, there will be presidential primaries in Arizona, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio, on both sides of the aisle. Florida will also have a Republican primary—we thought it had been canceled, but, in fact, only the Democratic primary was kiboshed. It's not too easy to get accurate information on these things, and those sources that do exist often disagree. Anyhow, we'll get a little more presidential data today, and we'll see if it tells us anything of interest.

On top of that, Ohio and Illinois are also holding primaries for the other federal offices. Here's a rundown of 10 races of interest:

1. U.S. Senate, Ohio: This is the biggie, as three Republicans duke it out for the right to challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH). Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) looks to be out of luck; perhaps he is being held responsible for the failed attempt to ban abortion access in the state. Car dealer Bernie Moreno is less electable, but more Trumpy, and so has the former president's full-throated backing. Baseball owner Matt Dolan is more electable, but less Trumpy, and so The Donald has been attacking him mercilessly. Yesterday, for example, Trump blasted Dolan for changing the name of his team from the Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians. The culture wars never, ever end.
   
   
2. OH-02: There are 11 Republicans running to replace Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R) as the holder of this ruby-red, R+25 seat. That's a situation that allows for wins with a small plurality, and thus potentially for a loon to land the nomination. Is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) about to get a new friend?
   
   
3. OH-09: At R+3, this is one of the few swingy seats in Ohio, thanks to effective gerrymandering by the state's legislature. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) will find out who her opponent is today; she would have liked to face J.R. Majewski (R), who is a scandal-ridden nutter, but he dropped out. So, it's likely to be either state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) or former state Rep. Craig Riedel. Riedel might have won, but a clip of him bashing Donald Trump came to light, and that may be fatal. Merrin is the preferred choice of the Republican establishment, and he also landed Trump's endorsement... about 12 hours ago.
   
   
4. OH-13: This seat, at R+1, is another one of the small handful of swingy seats. Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) is unopposed; she'll likely end up facing either councilman Chris Banweg (R), who is nutty enough to have gotten the endorsement of Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), or else former state legislator Kevin Coughlin, who is nutty enough to have gotten the endorsement of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH).
   
   
5. IL-06: Like Ohio, Illinois has very few swingy seats, due to effective gerrymandering. Of course, in the Land of Lincoln, the favoritism goes in the other direction. At D+3, this is one of the few seats that could plausibly switch hands in November. Rep. Sean Casten (D) is pro-Israel, and has drawn two challengers who are pro-Palestine and are hammering him for his stance. If Casten goes down, that could be a wake-up call for many Democrats. Whichever Democrat survives will go on to face Republican businesswoman Niki Conforti.
   
   
6. IL-07: This seat is D+36, and so will remain Democratic. However, Rep. Danny Davis (D) has drawn four challengers. Their main line of attack is that, at 82, Davis is too old.
   
   
7. IL-11: This is another potential swing seat, at D+5, and another Democratic primary that has largely become about Israel, with Rep. Bill Foster (D) taking the pro-Israel position and challenger Qasim Rashid (D) taking the pro-Palestine position. The Republican side of the race has three people, and they are competing to prove who is Trumpiest of all.
   
   
8. IL-12: Another district that will not be changing hands, as it is R+24. However, Rep. Mike Bost (R) has incumbency and Donald Trump's endorsement, while former state Rep. Darren Bailey (R) has a lot of vocal fans. Could be a barnburner.
   
   
9. IL-13: Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D) will be asked to defend her D+3 seat. Fortunately for her, the two Republicans running for the right to challenge her are Thomas Clatterbuck, who is busy finishing law school, and Joshua Loyd, who calls himself an entrepreneur but has been vague about what exactly his field is. Must be like Mr. Green in the movie Clue; a businessman whose business is "business."
   
   
10. IL-17: Basically, the same story as in IL-13. Rep. Eric Sorensen (D) will be asked to defend a swingy (D+2) district, but will face an unknown. In this case, the Republican will either be Scott Crowl, a farmer, or Joe McGraw, a judge.

We will, of course, have a rundown of the results tomorrow. (Z)