Mar.20

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

The People Have Spoken

Well, in five more states, they have. Plus a small part of a sixth.

We'll start with the presidential results from yesterday's primaries:

A few comments on these results:

• In all of the Republican primaries, the second-place finisher was Nikki Haley. That means that in his own state, and his own party's primary, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) finished third... with 3.7% of the vote. Oof. True, he's not running anymore, but neither is Haley, and she got 13.9%. This man has no future in politics. Only he doesn't know it. If you live in Florida and run into him sometime, you might gently mention it, but try not to break his heart.
  
  
• In the Democratic primaries in Arizona and Illinois, the second-place finisher was Marianne Williamson, with 3.5% and 3.6%, respectively. In Kansas, it was "None of these names shown," with 10.3%, and in Ohio, it was Rep. Dean Phillips (DFL-MN) with 12.9% (Williamson did not make the ballot in Ohio).
  
  
• Donald Trump continues to draw consistently smaller percentages of the vote than Joe Biden does. It is worth noting that Florida and Kansas use closed primaries, so in those places, the relative success of Trump challengers cannot be attributed to rat**cking voters.
  
  
• On the other hand, more Republicans have been showing up to vote than Democrats. Does that speak to greater Republican enthusiasm? It could, but we wouldn't want to bet money on it.
  
  The much greater GOP turnout in Ohio can be attributed to the competitive U.S. Senate race plus the state's general redness, while the much greater Democratic turnout in Illinois can be attributed to the competitive House races plus the state's general blueness. Florida had no Democratic primary, so we can't do any comparison there, while Kansas is very, very red. That means the only straight comparison from yesterday is in the purple state of Arizona, where far more Republicans showed up than Democrats. Again, this could suggest that there's greater Republican enthusiasm in the Grand Canyon State than there is Democratic enthusiasm. Still, the number of people who voted there yesterday is less than a third of the number who voted in the last presidential election. And it's our guess that Trump voters are more likely to show up for a meaningless primary than Biden voters are, primarily because there are many fanatical Trumpers whereas we've never heard of a fanatical Bidenite.

Moving on to the ten congressional races we previewed yesterday:

1. U.S. Senate, Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will face businessman Bernie Moreno (R) in November. Donald Trump went all-in on Moreno, and Moreno crushed the competition, taking 50.5% of the vote in the three-way race, easily more than the second-place Matt Dolan's 32.9%. This is precisely the sort of contest where Trump's endorsement matters the most; in a three- or four-way contest, the 5-10% of the GOP vote that the former president can swing is usually decisive. In any case, both the Trumpers and the Democrats got the candidate they wanted in Moreno.
   
   
2. OH-02: The new occupant of the R+25 seat being vacated by Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R) will be David Taylor (R), who defeated his 10 opponents with 25.4% of the vote. He's a fanatical Trumper who promises to fight the "liberal gun-grabbers" in D.C., while also working hard to protect... cryptocurrency. We would be willing to bet a large sum of money (well, not $10,000, but still large) that this man has at least 6 months' worth of food and water stored in his basement.
   
   
3. OH-09: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), as she tries to hold her R+3 seat, will face state Rep. Derek Merrin (R), who cruised with 52% of the vote, to his opponent's 34%. Undoubtedly, Trump will try to claim a victory here, because he did technically endorse Merrin. However, that endorsement came just hours before polling places opened, when the writing was already on the wall.
   
   
4. OH-13: Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) got the opponent she wanted as she attempts to defend her R+1 seat. It's former state legislator Kevin Coughlin, who is the more right-wing of the two Republicans in the race.
   
   
5. IL-06: The opposition to Rep. Sean Casten (D) was based almost entirely on his pro-Israel stance. It would appear that is not so problematic, at least in this district, as he crushed the pro-Palestine Mahnoor Ahmad, 77.1% to 14.0%. The seat is D+3, and Casten's Republican opponent, businesswoman Niki Conforti, is an unknown, so this is likely a Democratic hold.
   
   
6. IL-07: Apparently, 82 is not too old to hold political office, as Rep. Danny Davis (D) cruised to victory with 53% of the vote in a 5-way race. Undoubtedly, Joe Biden will be pleased to hear this. The district is very blue, so Davis can immediately get to work preparing his "84 is not too old" campaign for 2026.
   
   
7. IL-11: Another district where a pro-Israel stance was not a problem. Rep. Bill Foster (D) trounced challenger Qasim Rashid, 77% to 23%. The Republican is going to be Jerry Evans, who favors "limited government," while also investing in infrastructure, veterans' benefits, education, securing the border, and a powerful military. To paraphrase Inigo Montoya: "You keep using that phrase, I do not think it means what you think it means." In any event, Evans will have an uphill battle trying to knock off a long-time incumbent (9 terms) in a D+5 district.
   
   
8. IL-12: And here we have a reminder that Donald Trump's endorsement is rather less powerful in a two-way race. The former president's candidate, Mike Bost (R), is currently in the lead, with 52% of the vote, which means that former state Rep. Darren Bailey (R) has 48%. However, 6% of the vote is still out, such that this is the only primary from yesterday that still hasn't been called. Once this is sorted out, the winner will go on to win the general, as the district is R+24.
   
   
9. IL-13: Thomas Clatterbuck (R) will now have plenty of time to finish law school, as he lost to Joshua Loyd (R), 56% to 44%. Loyd's webpage is just terrible, and there is much there that suggests we're not dealing with the sharpest knife in the drawer here. For example, the first three endorsements on his endorsements page are from Caleb W., Bella S. and Justin D. Does the candidate not understand that endorsements are not Yelp reviews? It does not seem so. We suspect that Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D) will not have too much trouble holding on to her D+3 seat.
   
   
10. IL-17: Rep. Eric Sorensen (D) will try to maintain his grip on his D+2 district, up against former judge Joe McGraw, who took two-thirds of the vote to defeat farmer Scott Crowl. McGraw looks like a politician right out of central casting, and at very least he understands the concept of endorsements. Undoubtedly, the NRCC will be keeping a close eye on this one.

There was one other semi-interesting race we neglected to preview yesterday. The primary for the special election for the remainder of Kevin McCarthy's term was held, and Vince Fong (R), who has the backing of both McCarthy and Donald Trump, advanced to the June 20 runoff with 40.8% of the vote. He will face either Mike Boudreaux (R), who currently has 26.2% (with 84% reporting) or Marisa Wood (D), who currently has 23.1%. Up against a Democrat, Fong will win easily in the R+16 CA-20. If Boudreaux survives, and it's Republican versus Republican, you never know. In any case, the winner here will get a roughly 6-month term.

The rest of the month is a wee bit light on primary action. Both parties in Louisiana will have their presidential primaries this Saturday, as will Missouri Democrats. Then, North Dakota Democrats will take their turn the Tuesday after that. It's really not until April 20, when Pennsylvania holds primaries for all federal offices, that there will be interesting results again. (Z)