Dem
51
GOP
49
Now that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) has dug her own political grave and isn't running for reelection, the Arizona Senate race to replace her has become a more normal progressive Democrat vs. Trumpy Republican race. We have seen this numerous times before and will see it again in Ohio this year. A new Emerson College poll of the race between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Kari Lake (R) has 44% of the registered voters for Gallego, 40% for Lake, and 16% undecided. When the undecideds were pushed to make a call, it was 51% for Gallego and 49% for Lake.
The crosstabs are interesting. Voters under 40 are for Gallego 44% to 30%. Voters from 40-59 are for Lake. Voters in their 60s are split evenly, while seniors are for Gallego. With Sinema off the ballot, independents favor Gallego by 4 points.
Clearly, this is going to be a barnburner, with money flowing in from out of state like the Colorado River.
The poll also showed Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden 48% to 44%, with 8% undecided or voting for someone else. This poll shows an unusual split ticket, with the Republican presidential candidate ahead along with the Democratic candidate for the Senate. (V)