Dem
51
GOP
49
Two Republican Arizona state Senators crossed the aisle yesterday to join with all 14 of their Democratic colleagues, which meant there were just enough votes for a repeal of the state's 1864 abortion law. The state House had already passed the measure, of course, and Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) has said she'll sign it. So, once the repeal takes effect (90 days after the current legislative session ends), the law will be as dead as the Confederacy.
Now the question is whether that will be enough to save the Republicans' bacon in the fall elections. At the moment, Democratic operatives in Arizona are worried that voter outrage might dissipate, and that women/young people/Democrats who are unhappy about Israel will be less motivated to get to the polls. Republican operatives in Arizona, on the other hand, are hopeful that the rollback will cause the storm to subside. "It bails Republicans out," said one GOP strategist. "Republicans can point to the 15-week limitation and say, 'Most abortions happen in this time anyway, so what's the big deal?'"
Our sense of things, such as it is, is that the repeal of the bill won't actually change the dynamics of Arizona's November elections very much. To start, despite the Republican optimism in the previous paragraph, polls make clear that a 15-week ban is unacceptable to something like 60% of Arizonans. Also, there is still the measure on the ballot that would protect abortion access going forward. And finally, the repeal of the 1864 law was accomplished with zero votes to spare in each chamber of the state legislature. That means that at such point as the Republicans regain the governor's mansion, it wouldn't take too much of a shift in the composition of the state house for the 1864 ban to be re-implemented, or for a new ban to be put in place. If you're pro-choice, it's a situation that argues for a permanent resolution, while the opportunity exists. So, we think turnout on the pro-choice side will still be quite high, even with the 1864 law done for. (Z)