Dem
47
GOP
53
What is Donald Trump's real source of political power? In the end, it is his ability to order his cult to vote for candidates he endorses and have them faithfully do it. Without that power, he couldn't order members of Congress to jump and have them immediately say: "How high, your majesty?"
Trump has endorsed candidates in multiple races. If they win their upcoming races, that will put the fear of
God Trump in Republican candidates and officials across the country. That means his power is intact. However, if
they lose, other Republicans are going to notice that the king is losing his grip. On power, that is. His grip on
reality is another matter entirely.
There are two key tests coming up next Tuesday. First is the runoff for Marjorie Taylor Greene's seat in northwest Georgia, including Rome and some of the Chattanooga suburbs. The district is R+19 and heavily Trump country. The candidates are the Trump-backed Clayton Fuller and Brig. Gen. Shawn Harris (ret.). Harris is Black; the district is 70% white, 12% Black, and 12% Latino. It is also 57% blue-collar. Trump got 70% of the vote here in 2024. If Fuller wins by 19 points, all is well and good in Trumpland. Even if he wins by 10 points, things are fine. If Fuller's margin is under 10 points, though, that will set off alarm bells for Republicans.
Also on Tuesday is the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. It will not determine the "partisan" balance of the court, but if the Democratic-aligned candidate wins, replacing a Republican-aligned candidate who is retiring, Democrats will have a 5-2 margin, which will take them through the 2028 election, unless some Democrats die or resign unexpectedly. Unlike last year, Elon Musk is staying out of this one. If the Democrat wins by 10 points or more in this swing state, that will certainly be an omen.
On May 5, Indiana holds its primaries. Trump is furious with the state legislature because it refused to redraw the map and give the Republicans two more House seats. Trump-backed forces are trying to unseat all the state senators up this year who voted against drawing a new map. They are making the entire election about loyalty to Trump.
On Saturday, May 16, a more direct test will come in Louisiana, in which the Republicans will decide if they want to keep Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), who has prostrated himself at Trump's feet, or replace him with Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA), Trump's favorite. Cassidy, a physician, was the deciding vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr., against his better judgment. Cassidy's sins were: (1) hesitating to vote for someone he knows is completely incompetent and (2) refusing to recant his vote to convict Trump on his second impeachment. There is a third candidate in the race, so there could be a runoff between Cassidy and Letlow. Trump has also endorsed Blake Miguez for Letlow's House seat.
The biggest indicator will come on May 19, when the Republican voters in KY-04 decide if they want to keep Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who has been a real thorn in Trump's side. Trump is giving everything he's got to defeat Massie. The war in Iran could play a role here, since Massie opposes it. If Trump has achieved a stunning victory in that nation, Massie will look foolish. But if it is an ongoing disaster and gas is near $5/gal, Massie will be able to say: "I told you so."
Also on May 19 is the Georgia primary. Two races stand out there. First is the GOP Senate primary. Trump hasn't
endorsed there yet, but he hates Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA), who has endorsed Derek Dooley, a college football coach in
Tennessee. This implicitly means Trump prefers one of Reps. Buddy Carter (R-GA) or Mike Collins (R-GA). He hasn't
endorsed either one (yet) because he doesn't know who will win and doesn't want peach egg on his face. In the
race for governor, Trump has endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R-GA), who is competing against Georgia SoS Brad Raffensperger (R),
whom Trump hates with a passion because Raffensperger refused to "find" 11,780 votes for Trump in 2020. Also in the race is
healthcare executive and millionaire Rick Jackson, who is spending big time and who could force a runoff.
A week later, on May 26, is the Texas runoff between Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). Trump has not endorsed there because the base wants Paxton but the Senate Republicans do not want a corrupt fire-breathing lunatic in their ranks. (V)