Dem
47
GOP
53
Throughout his whole life, when Donald Trump feels that he is losing, is boxed in, and has no good options, he doubles down, often on the worst option he does have. So was it yesterday morning, when he took to his desperation-drenched social media site to threaten Iran in a tone and with language much worse than he has so far. He bleated:
Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP
As a reminder, we don't censor public statements made by politicians. Or, it would seem, sneering and disrespectful references to other people's religions.
It sounds like Trump can't wait to be a war criminal, since destroying civilian infrastructure like power plants and bridges is a war crime. Yesterday, Paul Krugman put out a video discussing whether generals would obey an illegal order to commit war crimes and what America has become.
Trump keeps changing his mind on Hormuz. For a while, he said it wasn't his problem and countries that imported oil from the Gulf should mop up the mess he created. Now it seems he cares very much about Hormuz. Why? This graph of urea futures may give a hint:
The graph shows the price of urea (H2NCONH2) in dollars/ton. Urea is an odorless, soluble, white solid that is a key ingredient of most fertilizers, as well as some plastics, adhesives, and fuel additives. About 30% of world fertilizer comes through the Strait of Hormuz. It is now planting season, fertilizer is essential now, and prices are skyrocketing. It is possible some farmers and giant agricultural conglomerates have patiently explained this to Trump. He probably doesn't understand the chemistry, but does understand that his base is very angry with him. His first reaction—actually, his only reaction—is to rage at someone, in this case, the Iranians. All this was completely predictable well in advance.
Another possible reason that Trump is raging over the Strait is the successful extraction of both pilots of the F-15 that was shot down over Iran. When there is a small tactical success like this (or swapping one dictator for a different dictator in Venezuela), Trump tends to feel his oats and think he can then do something different and much more difficult. That the CIA is good at locating and extracting downed airmen does not somehow imply that Iran will now give up its greatest leverage.
Yesterday, Trump went even further, and in an interview said he is not ruling out the use of ground troops in Iran. That would undoubtedly raise the stakes enormously. (V)