Dem
47
GOP
53
There are already multiple indicators that November is not going to be a happy time for Republicans. There is the generic ballot, the special elections, and the high number of congressional Republicans retiring. Now there is another possible sign that Republican officeholders fear what is coming.
More than a dozen Republican leaders of state legislatures are calling it quits. In a big uniform blue wave, state legislative chambers in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin could flip this year, with more to follow in 2028. Does the old saying about rodents and sinking ships apply here?
During the past 14 months, more than a dozen Republicans in state legislatures have announced that they are not running for reelection. Everyone has his or her own cover story, but collectively, it gives the impression that they are afraid of a repeat of Donald Trump's first midterm, when Democrats gained 308 seats in state legislatures and flipped six chambers.
Some Republicans are putting on a brave face though, like Wisconsin GOP state chairman Brian Schimming, who said: "If the election were next week, I'd be bothered. The election is not next week." Maybe things will get better for the Republicans in the next few months, but historically, it is rare for the fortunes of the incumbent party to improve in a midterm year. Still, Schimming conceded that the upcoming retirement of Wisconsin Assembly speaker Robin Vos and state Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu is not helpful. The Wisconsin Senate is 18R, 15D and the Assembly is 54R, 45D. Loss of the Senate is a real possibility. Tomorrow's Wisconsin Supreme Court election could shed some light on how things are going in the Badger State and might trigger more retirements.
Democrats still have work to do to finally undo the disaster of 2010, Barack Obama's first midterm, when Republicans flipped 22 legislative chambers. Part of the blame has to be laid at Obama's feet. He had no interest at all in state legislatures and Democrats paid the price with Republicans passing a raft of conservative legislation in the years thereafter. Currently, 56% of state legislators are Republicans and 44% are Democrats. The maps below show which party controls each chamber of the 99 state legislative chambers (Nebraska abolished the state House in 1934).
The Minnesota state House is split 67 DFL, 67R. Alaska has a power-sharing arrangement. Partisan composition varies greatly among states. In West Virginia and Wyoming, Republicans have more than 90% of the seats in the state Senate. No state chamber has 90% Democrats. The most are Hawaii (88.0%), Massachusetts (87.5%), and Rhode Island (86.8%). Republicans have 23 trifectas and Democrats have 16. The other 11 states are split. (V)