Dem
47
GOP
53
Here's a sentence that we never thought we'd write: There's a non-zero chance that, sometime today, the United States will launch a nuclear war.
For many years, we've believed that the only nation likely to do that was North Korea. And the primary basis for that belief was that North Korea is led by a madman whose interest in self-preservation could be a more powerful force than his concern about the consequences of a nuclear strike.
These days, there's a new madman in town. Two of them, really, if you include Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in addition to Donald Trump. They are desperate to win a war that was poorly conceived, poorly planned, and is now—predictably—going poorly. They don't have a lot of options for changing the course of the war, and they both seem to know that a ground invasion would be politically disastrous. Meanwhile, the United States' supply of conventional armaments is dwindling. Dusting off the supply of nukes would add a new "option" to the table. Trump and Hegseth are both the type of men who might see that option as a potential game changer.
And yesterday, Trump gave yet another unhinged press conference in which he turned up his threat-making to another new level. After reiterating a threat from Sunday evening that if Iran does not re-open the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would be "blowing up the entire country," he added that there is a plan "where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12 o'clock tomorrow night, where every power plant in Iran will be out of business—burning, exploding and never to be used again. I mean, complete demolition by 12 o'clock." Does that not sound like a description of a nuclear strike?
We're not the only ones to put the pieces together in this way. Here's reader A.A. in Branchport, NY, going through the argument in a bit more detail:
I hope I am wrong, but I think Trump is about to nuke Iran. At the very least, he is giving the prospect serious consideration:
- They are not white.
- They are disrespecting him by not caving.
- He is incapable of dealing with the war daily.
- He wants it OVER now!
- They are godless and he is carrying water of evangelical Christians who are literally salivating at the prospect of the end of days.
- His latest rhetoric states that he is going to end Iran.
- His rhetoric has backed him into a corner politically. He cannot afford another TACO.
- There is no one to stop him.
Sincerely hope I am wrong.
We hope this is wrong, too, but for the first time in many generations, this line of thinking is not crazy.
Plans for a nuclear strike would certainly also be consistent with the removal of the three high-ranking generals last week. "Sir, I will not accept an order to launch nuclear weapons" is exactly the kind of thing a military officer of conscience might say, and exactly the kind of defiance that would get them removed from command. One hopes that if "fire the nukes" is indeed the order, the next guy will also refuse, and will go public, so that the American people have some chance to express their views before Trump and Hegseth find their own Brig. Gen. Jack D. Ripper.
We'll add one other observation. Trump has been blustering and bloviating in Iran's direction for multiple weeks now, such that his words have ceased to have any real impact or meaning. But it's at least possible that all of this is not intended to get Iran to back down, and instead is meant to give Trump political cover. Shortly before the U.S. dropped nuclear bombs on Japan, Harry S. Truman delivered the Potsdam Declaration, which included this threat:
We call upon the government of Japan to proclaim now the unconditional surrender of all Japanese armed forces, and to provide proper and adequate assurances of their good faith in such action. The alternative for Japan is prompt and utter destruction.
Truman did not expect that the Japanese would surrender just because the leader of an enemy power did a little fist-waving, especially since Japan did not know about the nuclear devices at that point. Truman's only purpose was to be able to say, after Americans learned of the frightful destruction, "Hey, I gave them a chance, and they didn't take it." It is probably a little too much 3-D Chess for Trump to figure out this maneuver on his own, but one of his underlings might have suggested it to him. Certainly, the Potsdam Declaration of July 26, 1945, and the Trump Declaration of April 6, 2026, have much in common in terms of tone and content.
If Trump does decide to drop the third (and fourth? and fifth? and...) nuclear device to be deployed against an actual military target, we don't exactly know how the world will respond. There is no doubt the European allies will be furious, but Trump doesn't much care about them. They should have taken steps to re-open the Strait of Hormuz when they had a chance. As to Israel, that nation's government would certainly love to see Iran hit hard, but they would also be right in line to suffer from some of the nuclear fallout, and Benjamin Netanyahu might be unhappy about that. Meanwhile, for a long time, the primary deterrent against a U.S. nuclear strike was the likelihood that Russia would reply in kind. Would Vladimir Putin do so here, when it's a Russian client state that is being targeted as opposed to Russia itself? Especially since that response might open the doors to arming Ukraine with nuclear devices? We just don't know.
Domestically, we think that if Trump were to pull this particular trigger, it would be disastrous, far worse than putting U.S. troops into Iran. The war is already unpopular with 60% of the U.S. population, or so. Turning it into a nuclear war would not help with them, and it would likely drive some of the folks who are still MAGA but are also America First into the anti-Trump camp. Not to mention pretty much all remaining fence-sitters, fearful of living in a world where kids have to learn in school to "Duck and Cover." It is hard to imagine a development that could actually destroy the Republican Party for good, the way that opposition to the War of 1812 destroyed the Federalist Party. But if there is such a development, a nuclear war is probably it: "You Republicans knew he was a madman, you knew he was getting desperate, and you did not lift a finger. Now we have a nuclear war on our hands. A pox on all of you."
We could find out what the next step is sometime today. In theory, Trump's deadline for Iran to surrender is "Tuesday night." We are not sure if that's Tuesday night American time, or Tuesday night Iranian time. And, of course, there's always the possibility that Trump claims negotiations are going well, so he's generously decided to give an extension. On the other hand, Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine were supposed to brief the press on the situation in Iran this morning, and that event was canceled late last night, suggesting they will be busy today with... something. (Z)