Dem
47
GOP
53
Can't Donald Trump mix it up sometime, and fold like a cheap suit on a Friday or a Monday for once? We've used TACO Tuesday as a headline enough times that it's becoming a cliché. And yet, that's what Trump keeps doing.
After unspooling a bunch of wild threats on Monday, and using verbiage that suggested that a nuclear strike might be on the table, there was some alleged diplomacy on Tuesday. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan announced that he'd really like to avoid an escalation of the violence, and that he'd be interested in brokering a 2-week ceasefire. A few hours before the Trump-announced deadline, which was apparently 8:00 p.m. ET, Trump got on his social media platform for Mexican-food lovers to announce:
Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
So, Trump sure was ready to unleash armageddon. But he's just such a nice guy, he paused the end of days for a couple of weeks.
The immediate lesson here, which has been taught many times before, is that Trump's blather does not actually mean anything. Oh, he might bomb Iran, and he might not bomb Iran, but either way, Trump's verbiage is not indicative, and so is not worth paying attention to. Meanwhile, there is a ray of hope here in that the President appears to be trying to construct an off-ramp in which he can claim that Iran has yielded, victory has been achieved, etc.
We see two off-ramp related problems, though. The first is Iran's nuclear program. That nation needs its uranium, and at least the threat of developing nukes, as a means of protecting itself from another war like this one. But the U.S. does not want Iran to be nuclear, or close-to-nuclear, and Israel really, really doesn't want that. Resolving that particular point of contention will be none too easy.
Even tougher is the Strait of Hormuz. Opening the Strait is essential to trying to get the world's oil economy back on course, and has been a part of every Trump demand for at least a few weeks. But the Iranians will want to retain firm control over the Strait, in part for security reasons, in part for economic reasons (e.g., tolls), and in part so as to appear to be "strong" in the face of aggression from the Great Satan. Finding an arrangement that is acceptable to both sides will not be easy. And unlike enriched uranium, which is not in public view, and where there's some room for fudging, everyone can see if the Strait is open or not, and everyone can see if gas prices are high or not. In other words, Trump can't just claim "problem solved" when it comes to Hormuz; he'd actually have to solve it.
We'd like to point out two more things before we leave this subject behind for the day. First, we have once again seen a pattern of: (1) Trump rattles his saber over the weekend; (2) an unknown someone/someones makes some very aggressive investments on Monday; (3) the stock and commodities markets have a good day on Tuesday, making that unknown someone/someones a lot of money. Maybe there's a reason it's always TACO on Tuesday.
The other thing we'll point out is that among his threats, Trump repeatedly said Iran's "civilization would end" if he ordered the threatened attack against them. We have made clear, in the past, that we are very linguistically conservative on the use of the term "genocide," and avoid its use when we think it inappropriate. However, endeavoring to "end" a civilization through armed violence is very literally the definition of "genocide." It is remarkable that Trump has so thoroughly warped public discourse that he can threaten genocide against another nation, and it barely moves the needle.
Oh well, at least armageddon has been postponed... at least for now. (Z)