Apr.08

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

What's Going on in the California Governor's Race?

After Kamala Harris and Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) declined to run for governor of California, a whole bunch of Democrats thought they had a chance and jumped in. None of them were really well known statewide and it is showing in the polls. But something strange is showing. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and billionaire Democratic megadonor Tom Steyer are near the top. No one expected that. Here are the four most recent gubernatorial polls, all from March, with all five of the candidates who topped 10% in at least one of the polls:

We used 10% as the cutoff, because that is a nice, round number. However, the table would not change if we used 5%, since no other candidate broke that threshold, either.

The polls above tell two stories. The first is that no Democrat has come particularly close to breaking away from the pack. Last month, there was a California Democratic Party state convention. Eight of the candidates for governor showed up. They all wanted an endorsement, which required getting 60% of the 4,500 delegates on board with them. It didn't happen. The leader was Swalwell with 24%, followed by Betty Yee and Xavier Becerra.

Because California uses a jungle-primary-style system, there is a non-zero chance that each of the two Republicans gets around 20%, none of the Democrats do, and so the general election ends up pitting two members of the red team against each other, with the blue team shut out entirely. California Democrats are, as you might imagine, scared witless that this might come to pass, and are trying hard to get some of the non-viable candidates to drop out.

We would not be doing our jobs if we did not report that this possibility exists. However, the odds of a Republican vs. Republican general election matchup are pretty long. To start with, Democrats always end up with a giant field of candidates when it's an open-seat race, and Democrats always freak out that California's wonky system might bite the donkeys in the ass. There were, for example, 12 Democrats who ran in 2018. In the end, the state's Democratic voters invariably coalesce around one or two candidates, and the "crisis" is averted.

You can see signs that things are already starting to shake out, with about 2 months to go until primary election day. Swalwell was the leading Democrat (or tied for the lead) in every one of the polls listed above, and he's also got more support from the party activists than anyone else (hence the vote at the state convention). This despite the fact that the billionaire Steyer has been using his own money to flood the airwaves with commercials. Steyer is viable enough, and rich enough, that he'll probably ride it out until the end, but the signs aren't good for him. Same for Porter, except replace "rich enough" with "a good enough fundraiser." The Democrats who are barely registering in the polls--Yee, Becerra, Antonio Villaraigosa, Matt Mahan, etc.—should see what they can get in exchange for an endorsement, and should drop out. If they don't, most of their support will migrate to one of the three viable candidates, anyhow.

And in case the Democrats can't figure things out, well, they just got a huge assist from someone who hates California in general, and who hates California Democrats in particular, with a deep and abiding passion. That would be one Donald J. Trump, who announced this week that he was bestowing his endorsement on Hilton:

I have known and respected Steve Hilton, who is running for Governor of California, for many years. He is a truly fine man, one who has watched as this once great State has gone to Hell. Gavin Newscum and the Democrats have done an absolutely horrendous job. People are fleeing, crime is increasing, and Taxes are the highest of any State in the Country, maybe the World. Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so! With Federal help, and a Great Governor, like Steve Hilton, California can be better than ever before! Steve Hilton has my COMPLETE & TOTAL ENDORSEMENT. He will be a GREAT Governor and, importantly, WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Hilton quickly thanked Trump for the endorsement. He really shouldn't have, though.

As background to this, note that Hilton and Chad Bianco have both been trying hard to secure Trump's endorsement. As Bianco is an active law enforcement officer (sheriff of Riverside County), he has powers that he can abuse, and he most certainly did abuse them. A couple of weeks ago, he announced that the special election in which Californians voted to redraw the state districts was likely fraudulent, and he seized over 600,000 ballots. This was an obvious attempt to do some "stop the steal" pandering; there is no evidence of fraud. And the final vote was nearly 2-to-1 in favor of redistricting (64% to 35%), so if there HAD been enough fraud to swing the result, there surely would have been a lot of fingerprints. Bianco's maneuver was also a violation of state law, with the result that Bianco had to abandon his "investigation" last week, at risk of being hauled into court (actually, several courts).

Maybe Trump was unimpressed by Bianco's stunt. Or maybe he was unimpressed by the fact that Bianco backed down, and was unwilling to risk jail time, in contrast to so many of the other lackeys. Or maybe Trump just likes Hilton. In any event, the only slim hope the Republicans had of seating a governor was for Hilton and Bianco to split the GOP vote pretty much evenly, and for that to be just enough to put them ahead of the various Democrats. Again, not a likely scenario, but if all three of the leading Democrats stayed in and basically got the same amount of votes, and a few of the hopeless Democrats stayed in and peeled off a little bit more of the vote, it is at least possible that the total would end up 20% R1, 20% R2, 18% D1, 17% D2, 13% D3, 5% D4, 4% D5, 3% D6, thus advancing the two Republicans to the general.

Now, Hilton will take a big chunk of Bianco's support, will advance to the general, and might even get the most votes of any candidate in the first round of voting. Bianco will drop to third or fourth or fifth, and won't make it out of the first round. The top Democrat, which looks to be Swalwell, will likely finish with the second-most votes, leading some people with an agenda, and some pundits who haven't been paying attention, to declare that the GOP might just pull this one out. And anyone who says this will be wrong. Very, very wrong. Republicans don't win statewide in California these days. And if one was to buck the trend, it would have to be a moderate-to-liberal Republican, probably with some celebrity appeal—someone like Arnold Schwarzenegger. There is no way, no how, that a MAGA Republican wins. It's the Golden State, not the Golden Idol State. And that's before we consider the headwinds that any Republican is likely to face this year, in particular.

So, why would Trump wade in like this, and effectively help the Democrats out? Is he stupid or something? Yes, he is, but there may nonetheless be a method to his madness. He, or one of his underlings, might well have figured out that the "Republican getting elected governor of California" scenario is an extreme longshot. It's almost certain to be a Democrat vs. a Republican in the general, in which case Trump's endorsement won't produce a victory. On the other hand, a Trump endorsement in the primary has a close-to-100% chance of swinging the Republican side of that contest. So, Trump gets a win in June when Hilton advances. And then, when Swalwell (or some other Democrat) takes over the governor's mansion next year, Trump will have a new whipping boy to attack on social media.

Another lesson here is that California's top-two primary is a really bad idea. Disaster was averted because Trump stepped up to help the Democrats, but they can't count on this all the time. In any state where one party has absolute dominance, it is to be expected that there will always be a highly fragmented field with many contenders from the dominant party and only a couple from the hapless minority party, so the possibility of two minority party candidates making it to the general election is built in. There are many reasons to get rid of partisan primaries, but Alaska is showing the right way to go here with a top-four open primary and a ranked-choice general election in November. Alaska is a red state, but it is very, very unlikely that 10 Republicans and four Democrats would enter the primary and the four Democrats would come in 1, 2, 3, and 4. That would require too many people voting for a Democrat in a state where they are not all that popular. Sorry, California, but the folks in Alaska are smarter than you are. (Z & V)