Apr.08

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

And How about the L.A. Mayoral Race?

In Los Angeles, there is a group of people, small in number, but very noisy and very visible, who care a great deal about municipal government. These are the folks who attend every city council meeting and take notes. Who call into the "public affairs" shows on public access channels and on NPR. Who organize recall drives because [COUNCIL MEMBER X] has not lived up to their standards. Probably other cities have the same thing going on, but L.A. is the city we happen to know about.

This year's mayoral election has given these folks plenty of fodder for gossip and discussion. Because it is easy to get on the ballot, and because it's a jungle-style primary, there are 17 different candidates in the running. Here are the five who actually matter:

1. Karen Bass: After a long career in the House of Representatives, and at the age of 72, she is running for a second term as mayor. She has taken a lot of flak for the fires that tore through Los Angeles last year. This was partly fair, partly not fair. She has also taken a lot of flak for trying to bury the post-fire reports that highlighted mistakes that she made. This is very fair. Bass is, of course, the moderate establishment candidate.
   
   
2. Nithya Raman: Her entry into the race is what really got the local-politics fanatics talking. There's usually at least one member of the city council who throws their hat into the ring, but nobody thought it would be the relatively inexperienced Raman, especially since she was a close Bass ally before declaring her candidacy. What happened was that all of the more likely councilmember candidates took a pass, and at the last moment Raman decided to carpe diem. Raman is an outspoken member of the Democratic Socialists of America, and so is the progressive insider candidate. There's always at least one of those.
   
   
3. Rae Huang: She is a community organizer and a fair-housing advocate, and is also an ordained minister. Huang is the progressive outsider candidate. There's always at least one of those, too.
   
   
4. Adam Miller: He's a rich guy who has decided it might be fun to give politics a try. Stop us if you've heard this before, but there's always at least one of those, too. Usually, the rich-guy-turned-politico is a Republican, but Miller is a Democrat. Sometimes the rich guys win, but not often. Dick Riordan was a rich-guy dilettante who won, but that was more than 20 years ago. Readers will recall that Bass won her first term over Rick Caruso, who spent $104 million of his own money for the honor of losing by 8 points.
   
   
5. Spencer Pratt: And finally, Pratt is this cycle's moderate Republican who is pretending to be an independent, because it's a very blue city. This is possible because, like many mayoral elections, this one is officially nonpartisan. Apropos for the entertainment capital of the world, perhaps, Pratt is a reality TV star who has fame from his time on the show The Hills.

There are several "arguments" out there that this one could end up as a barnburner. Here are the main ones:

• Karen Bass is unpopular because of the fires, and change is in the air, so someone might knock her off.
  
  
• Karen Bass is leading in the polling, at around 30% support, but 40% are undecided. They could very well break for whatever candidate emerges as "the alternative."
  
  
• This race has the same basic contours as the New York mayoral race—entrenched Black moderate versus upstart South Asian progressive insider. And we all know what happened in New York.
  
  
• It's Los Angeles and Californians love their celebrity-politicians: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Ronald Reagan, George Murphy, Clint Eastwood, Sonny Bono, etc. Maybe "desire for change" and "love of celebrity" will produce a victory for Pratt.

There is certainly some truth in each of those arguments.

However, on careful examination, it's only some truth, not a lot of truth. For example, there are certainly some similarities between this election and the one in New York. However, Zohran Mamdani appears to be an unusually talented and charismatic politician. Meanwhile, Eric Adams wasn't just your everyday ho-hum entrenched moderate—he was (and is) an out-and-out crook who climbed into bed with Donald Trump. Bass is not a crook and is not a Trumper in any way, shape or form.

Put another way, we have to write about this election at some point, because that's what we do. But despite the various "arguments" above, and despite the chattering from the local L.A. politics followers, Bass is the overwhelming favorite to win here. She's only around 30% in the polls, it is true, but none of the other candidates has broken into double digits (excepting one poll for Raman). Meanwhile, Los Angeles has denied a mayor reelection exactly once in the last century (James Hahn, 2005) and has elected a Republican as mayor exactly once since 1950 (Dick Riordan, 1993). If someone does unseat Bass, it would almost certainly be one of the two progressives, but don't bet on it. Especially don't bet on it on Kalshi, where Raman is 48% to win, despite polling around 7-8%, as compared to Bass' 30% polling and 38% chance to win.

Incidentally, one quirk in L.A. municipal elections is that the event on June 2 is actually the general election. If any candidate gets 50% of the vote +1, then it's all over and they are elected. If not, then the top two advance to a runoff on November 3. So, it is possible Bass will have this all wrapped up before summer arrives. (Z)