Apr.10

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

House Divided: For Many in MAGA, It's the Day after Christmas

Thanks to the events of 1/6, Donald Trump managed to alienate a sizable chunk of his base—largely, the folks who weren't really MAGA, but who had to go along to get along. He put the coalition back together by 2024, of course, resulting in the term he's serving right now. But it's clear that many of the people who backed him in that election are now having buyer's remorse, and wish they could make an exchange. The primary cause of this, at least at the moment, is the mess in Iran.

Here are a rundown of some of responses to the Iran War, and particularly the call for genocide against Iran, from (formerly?) MAGA folks:

• Tucker Carlson: Carlson, no liberal Democrat he, delivered a 43-minute direct-to-camera takedown of Trump this week. Among other things, Carlson said: "How dare you speak that way on Easter morning to the country? Who do you think you are? You're tweeting out the f-word on Easter morning."
  
  The whole thing was scathing. Carlson even urged U.S. officials to refuse any orders that could kill civilians. Telling military officers not to kill civilians is not some wild-eyed leftist idea. The UCMJ requires officers to disobey illegal orders. It is not optional. So Carlson is now on the same page as Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), who Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is trying to demote? Politics makes strange bedfellows.
  
  
• Alex Jones: The famous conspiracy theorist who is generally untethered from reality called Trump "a dementia risk" who must be removed from office. Watch here. Jones got very emotional.
  
  
• Marjorie Taylor Greene: She was once Trump's all-purpose cheerleader. He could do no wrong. Now she tweeted that his rhetoric is evil and madness. Shades of Mad King George III. She and Jones have also been ripping into Fox "News," calling it "propaganda for Boomers."
  
  
• Candace Owens: She is also no longer on team Trump. She called him a genocidal lunatic. Them's fightin' words. And if there's anyone who knows lunatics, it's surely Owens, since she is one herself.

All if these people were definitely passengers on the Trump train at one time. But even for them, trying to erase a whole civilization is a couple of bridges too far, even if the civilization in question has some pretty evil elements.

All of this caused us to think of a pretty good question, one that we are not sure we know the answer to. Here it is: Who does Trump hate more; (1) People who are more successful than he is, and in his heart he knows it? or (2) People who were once loyal to him, and turned apostate? For example, does Trump hate Barack Obama more, or does he hate Mike Pence more? Whatever the correct answer is, Trump is definitely furious that his former sheep are now trying to shear him. He hopped on his low-EQ social media to unspool yet another unhinged, rambling manifesto, this time targeting the quartet listed above. Here it is, though we don't suggest you actually read it:

Our purpose in sharing it here is just to convey the visual impact. There is no such thing as a social media post that is that long, and has that many capitalized words, and has no paragraph breaks, and is not absolutely nutty.

With this said, it is not only the former true-blue (true-red) devotees who have jumped off the moving train. Even some manosphere influences who weren't entirely with him in the first place have departed:

• Joe Rogan: He is a giant in the manosphere and endorsed Trump in 2024. That might well have been what put Trump over the top. He has called Iran war "insane, based on what he ran on." He also said Trump's supporters feel betrayed.
  
  
• Theo Von: He hosted Trump on his podcast in 2024. He tweeted that the U.S. and Israel—not Iran—are the "fu**ing terrorists."
  
  
• Tim Dillon: Here is another one who backed Trump in 2024. He thinks of himself as an anti-establishment comedian. He has some thoughts on MAGA and tweeted "It's the greatest con in history, truly." Oops.
  
  
• Sneako: He is a "red pill" streamer who is close to antisemitic white nationalist Nick Fuentes. He is sorry that he ever supported Trump and is now calling for impeachment. Sneako misses Joe Biden. That's going pretty far.

Exactly what this all means for November of this year, when Donald Trump will not be on the ballot, is hard to say. Consider two rather forceful statements that right-wing-but-only-sorta-MAGA Megyn Kelly made this week. The first one came on the April 6 edition of her radio show: "Trump could drop a nuke and I'd still vote Republican over Democrat. What [Democrats] want to do is nuke our own country." The second one came the edition of the show that aired the very next day:

I mean, I don't know about you, but I am sick of this sh**. I'm just—I'm sick of it. Can't he just behave like a normal human?

I mean, honestly, like the president—3D chess, just shut up, fu**ing shut up about that sh**. You don't threaten to wipe out an entire civilization, we're talking about civilians, just casually in a social media post. You know?

Like, I am the first to try to understand Trump and his strategy and to not freak out over his weird social media posts and language that is loose and incendiary. Truly, I've lived with it for ten-plus years. I learned it the hard way when I was on the receiving end of for nine months. And truly, I think that was a gift to me in many ways because it helped me really come to understand what he does with his social media.

But, this is completely irresponsible and disgusting. This is wrong. It's wrong. He should not be doing it.

So where is Kelly at, when it comes to her vote(s) in November. Will she stay home on Election Day? Will she hold her nose and vote Republican, because the Democrats are somehow worse? Will she quietly vote Democratic, and forget to tell her audience? There must be many Trump voters who are wrestling with this right now, and the problem will get worse if the Iran War lingers and particularly if the economic after-effects of the war linger.

We will be watching the polls closely, of course, especially in the next few weeks. But our guess is that while some 2024 Trump voters will "forgive" him and his party, and fall in line despite their misgivings about Iran and about the economy, there are going to be a meaningful number of 2024 Trump voters who take a pass or who vote third-party, and there are going to be a meaningful number of independents who voted Trump last time, but who will jump ship to the blue team this time. If our suppositions are correct, that would cover two of the key ingredients in a blue wave. The third, of course, is Democratic enthusiasm, and we already know that is WAY up right now. (V & Z)