Dem
47
GOP
53
The race for governor of California was complicated and is suddenly getting even more so. The most recent poll of the all-party jungle primary has Sheriff Chad Bianco of Riverside County, Fox News host Steve Hilton, and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) as the top three, with 14%, 14%, and 12%, respectively. If this were the final primary result, the November election ballot would feature just the two Republicans, due to the badly fragmented Democratic field. As we have written, this is likely to change, now that Donald Trump has endorsed Hilton. Some Republicans may now switch from Bianco to Hilton, moving the sheriff to third place or lower and making the general election between Hilton and some Democrat. We haven't seen Bianco dropping yet, but it could well happen.
This weekend it got even more complicated, as four women accused Swalwell of sexual misconduct. It ranges from one who received explicit photos from him to one former staffer who claims Swalwell raped her while she was drunk. CNN has investigated and found evidence that supports one of the women. She released medical records showing that she had requested and received pregnancy and STD testing just after the alleged rape. The women's experience also speak to a pattern about Swalwell's modus operandi, which often involved heavy drinking.
All this news has caused Swalwell's campaign co-chairs to quit. Other campaign staff have also quit. Nothing has been proven yet, but many people close to Swalwell are apparently convinced that the women are telling the truth and Swalwell is lying when he denies everything.
Many of Swalwell's top endorsers are de-endorsing him now. These include heavyweights like Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). At least one independent PAC is also stopping with ads. The California Medical Association, which was a strong supporter, has called an emergency meeting to decide what to do. Unions, including the California Teachers Association and the SEIU, have "paused" their endorsements. The chairman of the California Democratic party, Rusty Hicks, has called the charges "deeply disturbing." He called for all candidates to reassess their viability.
It keeps getting worse for the would-be governor. Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), and other House Democratic leaders have called on Swalwell to drop out of the gubernatorial race right now. He puts the Democratic leaders in a bind. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) has been accused of ethical and legal violations of campaign finance laws. However, Democratic leaders want her investigations to play out as long as possible to avoid her being expelled from the House until the fall, since they know Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) won't call for a special election until Nov. 3. Although they want the process to play out slowly for Cherfilus-McCormick, they want Swalwell out yesterday, and certainly no later than today. They certainly don't want to have to vote on an expulsion resolution for Swalwell, who is not running for reelection.
Oh, and now the Manhattan D.A.'s office is investigating Swalwell because one of the women said she was intoxicated and woke up in a New York City hotel bed having sex with Swalwell in 2024. She said she tried to push him away but he refused to stop. The Alameda County D.A. is also considering charges against Swalwell for a similar incident in that county.
It is not plausible that Swalwell could survive this. There are too many women leveling accusations and too much supporting evidence. If the primary was already in the past, and the choice facing California Democratic voters was "Swalwell" or "some Republican," and if Swalwell refused to drop out, then maybe he could eke out a victory in blue California (but he would still be an underdog). But the primary is not over, and there are plenty of options for Democrats to choose from who do not have rape allegations against them.
Swalwell tried to save his campaign and his career over the weekend, with a series of videos denying the charges against him. But his heart did not seem to be in it, presumably because whether he is innocent or not, this was simply not survivable in the current climate, not with #MeToo and not with the Democrats working hard to use Jeffrey Epstein against Donald Trump. In that way, it mirrors the Al Franken-Doug Jones situation, where the blue team could not run a campaign based on Roy Moore's lascivious behavior without coming down hard on Franken. So, Franken got forced out, and Doug Jones went on to win that Senate race.
Note that Swalwell appears to be guilty of much, much more serious crimes than Franken. It's just that the political calculus is similar. Whatever Democratic leaders feel in their hearts (and most of them probably think he's guilty as sin), the politics of the moment dictate that he's gotta go. And late Sunday, the candidate bowed to that reality and dropped out of the California gubernatorial race.
Now what? In the Evitarus poll linked to above, taken March 31 to April 5, in English and Spanish, using telephones and online, billionaire Tom Steyer is fourth at 11%, former representative Katie Porter is fifth at 7%, and then Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, and Antonio Villaraigosa come next tied at 4% each. Being at 4% 7 weeks before the primary is not a good place to be. Our guess is that Steyer and Porter will get the lion's share of the support Swalwell loses. Actually, this mess might put Porter in a position to surge into the lead. Sometimes women candidates benefit from #MeToo-style backlashes. Further, there is some scuttlebutt that the information that brought Swalwell down came courtesy of the Steyer campaign. If voters believe that is true, they could withhold their votes from Steyer on the basis that he plays very dirty pool. Also keep in mind that an enormous number of voters say they are undecided, so it's not impossible that one of the other candidates could surge.
It is somewhat ironic that everyone's looking closely at the folks currently in third or fourth or fifth place in polling, because that person will be the next governor of California, assuming Bianco eventually loses momentum. Once again, the California top-two primary sucks. Californians should look north to Alaska for guidance. (V & Z)