Dem
47
GOP
53
As we approach June, there will be increased speculation about whether any Supreme Court justices will retire in June (end of the current SCOTUS term) and give Donald Trump a fourth pick and maybe a fifth one. Dwight D. Eisenhower nominated five justices. Franklin D. Roosevelt nominated eight. Already we are seeing articles speculating about this, including recent ones in The NYT and Reuters.
Virtually all Court observers expect Justice Samuel Alito (76) to hang up his robe in June. He may have health issues (he was in a hospital briefly last month) and seems determined to have Donald Trump nominate his successor and have that person confirmed by the Senate. Alito is smart enough and political enough not to leave this to chance by staying on another year. If the Democrats capture the Senate, the chance of Trump getting his first, second, third... or forty-ninth pick confirmed is close to zero. A Democratic Senate could emphasize the "advice" part of the Senate's constitutional duty of "advice and consent" by giving Trump a list of five names and saying "no one off the list will even get a hearing." All signs point to Alito announcing in June that he will formally retire as soon as the Senate has confirmed his successor. He will miss the free vacations Republican donors have given him on occasion, but at least his wife can then fly any flag she wants at their country home without getting any flak.
With Justice Clarence Thomas, it is personal. He doesn't actually like being a justice and almost never says anything during hearings. He's clearly had it with the job and wants out to drive around the country in the $267,000 luxury RV financed by a wealthy healthcare executive, Anthony Welters, who has since forgiven the loan. The deal was structured so Thomas paid almost nothing for the RV. Thomas has also been treated to at least 38 free exotic vacations from billionaire Republican donor Harlan Crow, many of them on private jets.
Thomas has two issues to consider before retiring. First, retirement will be the end of all the lavish free vacations with his soon-not-to-be-a-friend-anymore Harlan Crow. Second, Thomas could break a record if he wants to. If he continues to serve on the Court until August 2028, he will be the longest serving justice in history. He might very much like to stick it to the libs by setting that record. Imagine, the longest-serving justice in history could be a Black man born in a wooden cabin in Pin Point, GA, a small community of freedmen founded in the 1880s. His family consists of descendants of slaves, and who spoke Gullah as a first language.
So Thomas has a choice: retire in June 2026 and be guaranteed a conservative Republican successor or wait until 2028,
set the record, and possibly have the seat be kept open for a year and eventually be filled by a Democratic president in
2029. This pits his personal interest against the interests of the Republican Party. What will he do? We don't know, but
if pushed to guess, we think he will put his personal interest above that of the Republican Party. Besides, there is a
good chance the Republicans will hold the Senate in November. If they don't, he could conceivably retire in December and
force a lame-duck session of the Senate which could confirm his successor. We think that is unlikely, though. He has a
chip woodpile on his shoulder and isn't likely to give up his glory to help the Republicans. (V)