Dem
47
GOP
53
The ranks of the House of Representatives got a little thinner yesterday, as there were two resignations in the span of just a couple of hours.
First up, and a surprise to absolutely nobody who's been paying attention for the last few days, was Eric Swalwell, who—just one week ago—was the representative for CA-14 (just east and south of San Francisco) and the leading Democrat in the race to become California's next governor. But thanks to the many and varied claims of sexual abuse made against him, he ceased to be a gubernatorial candidate on Sunday. And yesterday, Swalwell ceased to be a member of Congress, as he tendered his resignation from that body.
As we have undoubtedly pointed out before, only a small percentage of sexual assault claims—less than 10%—made by women turn out to be false. That means that if there's just one woman claiming to have been victimized, it's at least possible, albeit definitely not probable, that it's a tall tale. But once the number of accusers begins to climb, those odds grow vanishingly small. In Swalwell's case, there are not only four accusers, but there's much evidence that his behavior has been whispered about for years. And given that he certainly looks to be guilty, it's remarkable that he thought he could subject himself to one of the most intense spotlights in America—the one trained on California gubernatorial candidates—and could escape unscathed. That said, Cesar Chavez, Jimmy Savile, Donald Trump and many others, got away with it for decades (or more). So, maybe it isn't so remarkable that Swalwell thought he was bulletproof.
The second resignation yesterday was also courtesy of an absolute lecher. Republican Tony Gonzales, soon to be the former representative for TX-23 (West Texas), has been connected to at least two affairs with his staffers, one of whom took her own life. The clock was ticking on him anyhow, and yesterday, he finally bowed to reality and said he would join Swalwell in the unemployment line.
Regardless of how the other members of the House feel about these two men—and there is abundant evidence that most of their soon-to-be-former colleagues found the behavior of Swalwell and Gonzales to be repellent—the political maneuvering here could not be more plain. The Democrats want to use Jeffrey Epstein as a cudgel against Donald Trump and his party in the midterms. That is difficult to do while the blue team has its very own (accused) rapist within its ranks. So, they very obviously made it clear to Swalwell that if he did not fall on his sword pronto, he would have the ignominy of being expelled, probably within the week. There's no penalty to being expelled (you don't lose your pension, for example), but it's embarrassing, and Swalwell decided he didn't want to go through that.
At that point, the GOP had two sexual predators in its ranks that the members had failed to act on—Gonzales and Trump—and that was an extra-bad look, given how quickly the Democrats moved to get rid of Swalwell. There isn't too much that the red team is going to do about Trump, but they could certainly lean on Gonzales, who was even further down the path toward expulsion than Swalwell was, by virtue of having already been investigated by the House Ethics Committee. Undoubtedly under enormous pressure, and perhaps with some remaining loyalty to the GOP brand, Gonzales made the same choice as Swalwell did, and jumped ship before he could be thrown overboard.
But while these two men might be gone, we probably haven't reached the end of the resignations (or, failing that, expulsions). Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) is also pretty far along the path to being booted out, having already been investigated by the Ethics Committee for many and numerous financial misdeeds. Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) is in hot water over several things, including his own financial misdeeds, a domestic violence charge, and some sexual misconduct, including sending out revenge porn. They might not survive the month, especially since if the members of the House vote to expel them both, then the two parties are both rid of an anchor around their respective necks, while still maintaining the same partisan balance in the House.
With Swalwell and Gonzales gone, the party balance in the House is 216 R, 213 D, 1 I, with that I being the formerly Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley (CA). There will likely be special elections for both of the now-vacant seats, with the respective governors making that happen as fast as is allowable under law. However, neither seat will be filled until late summer/early fall. On Thursday, the good people of NJ-11 will almost certainly pick Democrat Analilia Mejia to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), making it 216 R, 214 D, 1 I. If the two Floridians go, that will effectively be a wash, pushing it to 215 R, 213 D, 1 I.
There are no other currently scheduled changes in membership until the seat left vacant by the death of Republican Doug LaMalfa is filled, probably on August 4 (that's the date of the runoff). His now-former district, CA-01, is R+12, which means it should be safe GOP. But if somehow, some way, control of the House majority hinges on that seat (and it would potentially only take one more R or I departure), all bets are off. For now, however, the conclusion is the same as with all of these kinds of items: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has virtually no margin of error to work with right now, which will not make life easy if and when he tries to ram a reconciliation bill through the House.
And to round this out, we are going to add this comment from (L), who uses that nom-de-plume when writing as a staffer, but—just like the VP is a member of both the executive and legislative branches—is also a reader, and uses A.R. in Los Angeles when speaking in that capacity. This is definitely from A.R.:
From a woman's perspective, this pattern is eerily familiar. A powerful man initiates contact with a much younger woman who's just getting started in her professional career. He dangles the prospect of employment and pretends to be interested in her professional goals. Then, he makes it sexual and he starts demanding attention and exchanges of nude photos and maybe even sexual favors. He reduces her to an object that he uses for his gratification and knows that she'll keep quiet because he's powerful and can make or break her career. And since she believes she's alone and no one would believe her if she came forward anyway, she just deflects, goes along and tries to minimize the damage as much as possible.
In the case of Tony Gonzales, it ended tragically when one of the women he was allegedly harassing set herself on fire. But the Republicans weren't interested in holding him accountable until there was a Democrat to match. And they certainly weren't talking about Cory Mills until there were two Democrats to kick out.
On the other hand, Swalwell's Democratic gubernatorial campaign was over as soon as the credible accusations became public. And I'm hopeful that it's not because of the "climate." Instead, it's a recognition, at least by those who understand what discrimination against women actually looks like, that this is the abuse of power to demean and subjugate women. Let's set aside the rape allegations and just focus on the grooming text messages that turned sexual. A powerful Congressman is texting a 20-something—who is looking for her first job—lewd photos and messages. That is textbook sexual harassment and that alone is disqualifying. It's the imbalance of power that he's taking advantage of: "That swimsuit. Fuck." I haven't heard him deny that gem.
I'm proud of the SEIU and the teachers' union who acted so quickly to withdraw their support, as well as the elected officials who called on him to step down. That stands in stark contrast to the anemic response by Republicans to allegations not only against other representatives and cabinet officials like Pete Hegseth, but against Donald Trump himself.
As to the questions of why this is coming out now, this is not unlike the allegations against Brett Kavanaugh or other powerful men who suddenly seem likely to be elevated to even greater positions of power. Someone had to be first, and then the dam broke when each realized they weren't alone. I'm grateful they had the courage to come forward now. And the fact that Swalwell's staff quit so quickly indicates to me that they were not all that surprised by these revelations.
Swalwell's attempts to reach out to each of his accusers with job offers when he announced his campaign for governor seems like an obvious attempt to head off any accusations and an admission of guilt. And sending two of the women cease and desist letters to intimidate them into shutting up doesn't exactly help his cause either. It smacks of the arrogance of a man who's gotten away with this behavior for too long.
How powerful men treat women is the canary in the coal mine for all kinds of other unethical and corrupt behavior. They need to know it won't be tolerated and, so far, only one political party is willing to hold their own accountable, or at least not be dragged kicking and screaming to sometimes do the right thing.
Hear, hear! (Z)