Dem
47
GOP
53
We wrote, earlier this week, about how House Democrats, led by Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), are pushing to remove Donald Trump from office via the Twenty-Fifth Amendment. Over the weekend, the story was that Raskin sent a letter to presidential physician Sean Barbarella asking him to make a full cognitive assessment of the President. Now, Raskin and his colleagues have upped the ante, and have put together a bill that would create a bipartisan 17-member "Commission on Presidential Capacity to Discharge the Powers and Duties of Office." This commission would obviously be granted the power to invoke the Twenty-Fifth Amendment.
There is, of course, no chance that this bill becomes law in time for Donald Trump to be subject to its conditions. That is why we put "attempt" in quotes in the headline, because Raskin & Co. know they aren't actually taking steps to remove Trump. It is improbable that the proposed legislation will make it out of committee. If it somehow does, it is not likely it will come to the floor of the House. If it somehow does, it is not likely it will pass the House. If it somehow does, it will not likely come to the floor of the Senate. If it somehow does, it is not likely it will get the 60 votes needed to invoke cloture and pass the legislation. If it somehow does, Donald Trump will veto it.
So, all of this is just for show. We can see two ways this might work out well for the Democrats, one way it could work out very poorly. The first potential positive outcome for the blue team is that if they can really keep the "Is Trump mentally fit?" conversation going, then Trump will be peppered with questions on that subject. And sometimes, he takes the bait, and agrees to do something to "prove" that he's fit, like take a test that you pass if you are able to tell which one is the doggy and which one is the ducky. If Trump can be baited in this way, and he has been before, that works to the Democrats' advantage, we'd say.
The other way this could work out well for the Democrats is by showing the base that the Party's elected officials are on the job, and are doing what they can to hold Trump's and the Republicans' feet to the fire. Of course, if the Democrats do regain the majority in the House, they will be left with no choice but to impeach Trump. Not too long ago, maybe as recently as January of this year, we would have taken the view that impeaching him was an unwise choice, as it would look like a political stunt. But now, he's done enough crazy stuff—like threatening genocide against Iran—that impeachment is much more obviously justified, and probably won't seem like a cheap stunt.
On the other hand, the way this could go south for the Democrats is if it somehow convinces a lot of voters that the blue team could do something to deprive Trump of power, but they're just not doing it, due to a lack of will, or a lack of smarts, or whatever. If people come to think that this is a real maneuver with a real chance of success, only to see it inevitably fail, they could end up very angry with Raskin and his colleagues. It would appear that is a gamble that House Democrats are willing to make.
Note, incidentally, that we did not say this bill can never become law, only that it cannot become law while Trump is still in office. The folks who wrote and adopted the Twenty-Fifth Amendment clearly designed it primarily to address the "Woodrow Wilson" condition, where a president is incapacitated, but refuses (or is unable) to hand off power. They also clearly intended impeachment to continue to be the primary corrective for abuses of power. The problem, at least these days, is that partisanship is so intense that virtually no level of incapacity, incompetence or indecency is enough to trigger removal via either course of action. It's not too easy to devise a system that allows for presidents to be removed for legitimate reasons without risking that one might be removed for entirely partisan reasons. But if there is a solution, then it almost certainly lies in putting the decision in the hands of people who know what they're doing, but don't rely on partisan loyalty in order to keep their jobs. Once a Democrat is in the White House again, it's at least possible that enough members of Congress will agree on this point that something like the Raskin bill can actually become law. (Z)