Dem
47
GOP
53
The resignations of both Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales became official yesterday. Swalwell is going to need all of the newly free time he has on his hands, as yet another woman has accused him of raping her (in violent fashion). His career is not only over but, at this point, Swalwell will have a hard time staying out of prison.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) who, as you may have heard, is thinking about running for president in 2028, moved with lightning speed to call the election that will choose a replacement for Swalwell. It will be held on August 18 and, since CA-14 is D+20, will result in another Democrat being elected to the House.
Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) has not yet called the special election that will need to happen in the Lone Star State. The last time we had this situation—a Republican-held seat coming open, meaning Abbott theoretically has motivation to move quickly—was back in 2021, when Ron Wright died of COVID. He succumbed on February 7, 2021, and his replacement was elected on July 27, 2021, which is 171 days. Counting 171 days from yesterday, you get October 2. So, it looks like the Democrats will get their seat back at least a few weeks before the Republicans do. Further, it is worth noting that TX-23 is only R+7, so it's not the sure thing for the red team that CA-14 is for the blue team. If Abbott thinks the seat might just flip, or if he doesn't think it wise to spend the money for a special election just over a month before a regular election, he might well keep the seat open until November, and have both a special and a regular election on the same day.
And since we are on the subject of Eric Swalwell's stunning implosion, we'll pass along that there's a new poll of the California governor's race, from SurveyUSA. It was conducted from April 8 to April 10, which is after Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, and overlaps, but only slightly, with the first wave of news about Swalwell.
According to the pollster, Tom Steyer (D) is your current leader, with 21% support. He is followed by Hilton, at 18%. Swalwell, Katie Porter (D) and Chad Bianco (R) are in an effective dead heat, at 9%, 8% and 8%, respectively. All the other candidates are still polling below 5%, which means they are at risk of missing the gubernatorial candidates' debate.
Unusually, though for obvious reasons under the circumstances, SurveyUSA gave a brief summary of how the responses before the Swalwell news broke differed from responses after. Basically, Steyer took a 5-point hit (from 22% to 17%) after the news broke, while Porter gained a point. That is most likely random variance, though it's possible, as we have noted, that voters suspect Steyer engineered the leaks that downed Swalwell, and Steyer is being punished accordingly. In any event, whatever happens on the Democratic side, the significant news here is that it looks like the Trump endorsement is having the expected result, and helping one Republican at the expense of the other. If so, it makes the already unlikely possibility of two Republicans advancing to the general a near-impossibility.
Also, since we've gotten this question a few times, we might as well answer it now. If the Democrats do manage to shoot themselves in the foot, and to get shut out of the general election (again, a very unlikely outcome), then the Golden State does allow write-in candidates. The blue team would have to coalesce around one candidate, and would have to conduct an expensive public education campaign, but it's possible.
There is also one other option—California does allow recalls. This option is supposed to be exercised only in the event that the officeholder is incompetent or corrupt, and it's dirty pool to do it solely for political purposes. But the GOP already broke that particular taboo when they tried (unsuccessfully) to recall Newsom. So, if a Republican did get elected, there's a fair chance that as soon as they did something like cut funding for Medicaid, or worked with Trump and ICE, they would be subject to a recall.
Incidentally, we thought the special election in New Jersey was scheduled for yesterday. It's actually scheduled for tomorrow. Who knows why that is, since the rest of the country votes either on Tuesdays or weekends. Oh well, forget it, Jake—it's New Jersey. (Z)