Dem
47
GOP
53
When Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) was inaugurated as governor, she resigned her House seat. Today the voters of NJ-11 will choose her successor. The district is D+5, so in theory, in neutral times, either party could win it even if the Democrat would be the favorite. However, these are not neutral times. Democrats have overperformed in every special election this cycle, sometimes by massive amounts. Today's special election will be another data point to add to the list.
The candidates are Analilia Mejia (D) and Joe Hathaway (R). Mejia, the daughter of immigrants from Colombia and the Dominican Republic, was Bernie Sanders' national political director and is now co-executive director of a grassroots political organization. Hathaway is the former mayor of Randolph, NJ.
Every political observer expects Mejia to win. The big question is by how much. The most recent election was the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, in which the candidate aligned with the Democrats won by 20 points in the mother of all swing states. But what about House special elections? Here are the results for six special House elections this cycle. The TX-18 special election was Democrat vs. Democrat and so is excluded here.
| Date | District | Dem margin 2024 | Dem margin special | Net |
| April 1, 2025 | FL-01 | -37 | -15 | D+22 |
| April 1, 2025 | FL-06 | -30 | -14 | D+16 |
| Sept. 9, 2025 | VA-11 | +34 | +50 | D+16 |
| Sept. 23, 2025 | AZ-07 | +22 | +40 | D+18 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | TN-07 | -22 | -9 | D+13 |
| Apr. 7, 2026 | GA-14 | -37 | -12 | D+25 |
The average here is D+18. But how predictive is this? We do have a bit of data. There were also special elections in 2017 and 2018 and a midterm election in 2018. In 2017 and 2018, there were seven special House elections. The average shift was D+13. In the 2018 midterms, Democrats flipped 41 House seats. That is less likely this time due to even more heavily gerrymandered districts than in 2018. Still, there was some predictive value to the special elections last time. Tomorrow we will have a new data point for our collection. (V)