Apr.16

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Trump's Small Tent

Democrats are the big-tent party, with a wide diversity of views ranging from Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and ethnically all over the map. Republicans tend to be more homogeneous. Nevertheless, in 2024, Trump pulled in some groups that normally heavily support Democrats. Some Republican strategists think they have cracked the code and now these former Democrats are all theirs. What they see as a once-in-a-generation event may indeed be a once-in-a-generation event. If it is, some of the gerrymanders this cycle may turn out to be dummymanders. The problem for the Republicans is that their tent has holes all over the place and the rain is pouring in. Here are a few of the problem areas.

• Christians: This is Trump's core base. On Easter morning, he sent out a profanity-laced rant threatening war crimes in Iran and signing off with "Praise be to Allah." Then he threatened to wipe out an entire civilization. Last Sunday, he lit into the pope and called him "WEAK on Crime." Trump seems to think Leo is a Democrat. Actually, Leo (previously known as Robert Prevost), voted in the Republican primaries in 2012, 2014 and 2016. Leo is thus the first Republican pope. Oh, then came the AI image of Trump as Dr. Jesus. Some Christians called this blasphemy and even demonic possession. All these attacks on Christianity could hurt Republicans in November.
  
  
• MAGA Media: All these things have played poorly throughout the MAGA media world. America Firsters like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens and Alex Jones are all up in arms about Iran. They didn't sign up for another forever war in the Middle East. In fact, they signed up specifically to avoid any more wars over there.
  
  
• Podcastistan: Podcasters like Joe Rogan, who were with Trump in 2024, are leaving him. They are angry about Iran, but even more so about the Epstein files and suspicious insider trading on the stock market and other markets.
  
  
• Crypto Fans: They were expecting a golden age for crypto. Well, maybe not golden, because gold is an alternative for people who like gambling in financial markets. The results are not what crypto fans wanted, with Bitcoin tanking and lots of self-dealing by insiders going on. It should be noted that what really sunk Orbán in Hungary was not so much his attacks on democracy, but his garden-variety corruption, which Trump has in spades.
  
  
• Farmers: Many of Trump's policies seem aimed straight at farmers. Tariffs and countertariffs make it hard to sell their crops. The war in Iran is driving fertilizer prices through the barn roof, not to mention fuel for tractors and other equipment. The deportations are taking away much of the labor farmers need to plant, tend, and harvest their crops. Times are not good down on the farm and farmers know it.
  
  
• Non-whites: Deep pessimism about inflation and the economy is hitting the marginal voters who turned out for Trump in 2024 hard. These folks don't follow politics, but when they pull up at a gas station and then pull out $100 poorer, they very much notice. And Trump has admitted it is probably not going to get better before November.

Maybe these problems will all resolve themselves before November. Republicans had better hope so. (V)