Apr.16

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The First 2028 Cattle Call

Normally, the invisible primary starts in January after the midterms. That makes the full campaign almost 2 years, something other countries do in 6 weeks. This time, it looks like campaign season is going to be an absurd 2½ years. Part of the blame here goes to the ever-publicity-seeking Rev. Al Sharpton, who made the first cattle call of the 2028 race by inviting all the leading 2028 Democratic contenders to show up at a convention of his civil rights group, the National Action Network. Quite a few of them obediently showed up to be interviewed by Sharpton. Here is a first take on the field:

• Kamala Harris: She wowed the (largely) Black audience. Sharpton noted that she came close to announcing her run but didn't quite do it. Apparently she wants to tease people for a while. Democrats are not waiting with bated breath. In fact, quite a few hope she never does it. They will be sorely disappointed.
  
  
• Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY): Apparently he was not well known before he spoke, but afterwards, some people came up to Sharpton and said: "We may be looking at another '92 with this Beshear guy." Beshear, of course, is hoping to ride that story all the way to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. It could work.
  
  
• Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA): Sharpton felt that the more Shapiro talked, the more the audience liked him. We might have another Joe Lieberman here. In 2000, Lieberman, the Democratic vice presidential candidate, was a big hit with evangelicals, even though he was Jewish, because he was one of the few candidates who talked incessantly about religion. Few Democrats do that. Shapiro is another one and got a good reaction as a result.
  
  
• Pete Buttigieg: He came to Sharpton's convention in 2020 but that was problematic. Sharpton said he was more at ease this time and the crowd seemed to warm to him more this time. To be viable though, Buttigieg is going to have to get Black voters to actually vote for him, not just tolerate him. South Carolina could be his Waterloo.
  
  
• Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL): Sharpton said Pritzker was treated very politely by the crowd. This is probably a euphemism for "they didn't like him so much."
  
  
• Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA): No one sees him as presidential material, but there was interest in him on account of his pushing so hard to get the Epstein files out there.
  
  
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ): He came off as a folksy, everyday guy. Winning the beer test is always helpful. Also, he came early and attended a reception with the delegates, which won him some fans.
  
  
• Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD): Sharpton said he has lots of charisma and believes Moore is serious about a run. Sharpton: "I get a sense he's leaning that way."
  
  
• Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ): Many of the delegates didn't know who he was. Gallego was apparently aware of this problem in advance and did a good job of tying Trump's deportation agenda to civil rights. It was very effective.

Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) gave a speech instead of being interviewed. He is well known to that crowd, which is both positive (they like him) and negative (they want a fresh face) at the same time. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) couldn't make it due to a scheduling conflict. Sharpton didn't invite Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) because he doesn't think she will run. We don't either. We expect her to challenge Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) in 2028.

Sharpton asked all the candidates if they were running. No one came right out and said it, but no one denied it, either.

Some of the candidates felt that the Democrats should relentlessly focus on Donald Trump and his corruption, lawbreaking, chaos, and polarizing style. Others want to downplay Trump and focus on economic issues, like the minimum wage and inflation.

One point everyone agreed on though was hitting the Republicans on Trump's "war of choice" and the consequences it has had for most Americans. Maybe the war will be over by 2028, but talking about it now could well help in the midterms. (V)