Dem
47
GOP
53
Americans do not approve of Donald Trump's mass deportation campaign. According to a new poll taken for Politico by Public First from April 11-14, half of all Americans—including a quarter of the people who voted for Trump in 2024—think Trump's deployment of ICE agents is too aggressive and has gone too far. A quarter of all Americans think the deportations are going well and 11% want them to be more aggressive. Losing a quarter of your base on the most important issue for many people is not a good thing. Here are the results compared to the same poll in January.
A key finding here is that among Trump voters "too aggressive" has gone up by 4 points while "not aggressive enough" has gone up by 3 points, while "about right" has lost 7 points. In other words, 7% more Republicans are unhappy with Trump, albeit for different reasons.
Not entirely surprisingly, Trump's support is cratering with Latinos. Trump won an unprecedented 46% of the Latino vote in 2024, but now only 34% of Latinos approve of his policies, with 32% approval on immigration and 33% approval on the economy. If it continues to go downhill, Republicans could get some big surprises in South Texas, where the new House map was drawn on the assumption that Latinos would continue to support Republicans in large numbers. The gerrymander could end up being a dummymander.
A majority (51%) also say that having ICE officers in cities is dangerous. In other words, sacking Kristi Noem and replacing her with Markwayne Mullin at DHS has not had the desired effect. People don't like the policy, no matter who is in charge.
Part of the problem for Trump is that the deportations are working. In South Texas, the construction industry is facing a shortage of workers. In the Midwest, farmers can't find workers to plant their crops. In Latino-heavy areas, businesses have seen a drop-off in sales. Many of these people voted for Trump, but are now starting to feel the effects of his policies and don't like them. They may not vote Democratic in November, but some of them may stay home on Election Day. (V)