Dem
47
GOP
53
This would be really big news—if it is true. CBS News is reporting that sources close to the Supreme Court say neither Justice Samuel Alito nor Justice Clarence Thomas will retire in June. Many people (including us) were expecting Alito to retire, in full knowledge that Donald Trump would nominate a younger version of himself as a replacement and the Senate would rubber stamp the nomination on a party-line vote, maybe with Sen. John Fetterman (D?-PA) siding with the Republicans.
If the leak is true—and again, this is just one leak—we are very surprised about Alito. He is now 76. He might be able to serve for another 5-10 years. According to the actuarial tables, a 76-year-old American man can expect to live another 10.3 years. If he retired in 2 months, he would be assured of a successor he would approve of. If he hangs on until Jan. 3, 2027, he is taking a risk that Democrats will control the Senate and will reject every candidate Trump sends to them. An even bigger risk is a Democratic trifecta on Jan. 20, 2029, and a nomination and confirmation of someone Alito can't stand. Maybe Alito is having a good time on the Court and thinks only he can keep up the momentum. The Court has a history of justices thinking they are immortal and then going up to the Great Bench in the Sky at an extremely inconvenient moment (see: Ginsberg, Ruth Bader).
It is also possible that Alito doesn't retire in June but holds his resignation until just before the Court begins its new term in October. That would tee up a massive confirmation fight just as early voting got going. If Trump nominated a far-right candidate and Democrats went bonkers, that could affect the Senate elections by making the Supreme Court an issue.
Thomas is different. If he hangs on until Aug. 2028, he will break the record for the longest-serving justice in history. It is entirely possible he wants to stick it to the libs by breaking the record and doesn't really care who his replacement is. He is less of a partisan than Alito and more of an bitter, angry, resentful man, despite him achieving a very high position, even though he got the job because George H.W. Bush simply wanted to appoint a Black conservative to the Court and the pool Black conservative lawyers who could get through the Senate was pretty small at the time.
Anyhow, for these reasons, we are not surprised that Thomas might well hang on for another 2 years. We're skeptical of Alito going for another rodeo, but we'll know soon enough. (V)