Apr.21

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Another Rebellion in the House

This story almost got by us, but the House has once again done an end run around Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). The nation of Haiti has been beset by problems for years, as a result of a devastating earthquake and nearly uncontrolled crime. So, the Obama administration granted Haitian refugees Temporary Protected Status (TPS). The first Trump administration extended that, as did the Biden administration.

It would seem that, this time around, someone in the White House (ahem, Stephen Miller?) noticed that Haitians are Black. So, sh**hole country. And thus, the administration said there would be no more extensions, since there are allegedly no longer "extraordinary and temporary conditions" in Haiti. In response, Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-MA) filed a bill by which Congress would extend TPS for Haitian refugees. Johnson refused to bring it to the floor, and so Pressley sought, and secured, the 218 signatures needed for a discharge petition.

The bill came up for a vote last Thursday, and passed, 224-204, with 10 Republicans crossing the aisle to vote with all the Democrats. Here is a list of those 10 Republicans, along with the PVI of their districts:

In addition, Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-CA), who was until recently a Republican, and who still caucuses with the GOP, voted for the bill. His district, CA-03, is R+2.

There are some pretty obvious themes that run through this list of apostates. To start, a lot of them represent swingy districts. Don Bacon doesn't count here, because while his district IS swingy, he's retiring. So presumably, he just voted his conscience. Or, alternatively, he just voted for what would piss Donald Trump off. Anyhow, while we have to exclude Bacon, we also have to include Nicole Malliotakis. Though her district does not appear swingy, she has to prepare for a potential future where the courts allow the new district maps to be put in place, which would definitely make her district swingy.

Truth be told, we're not clear why the six Republican members (and the "independent") running for reelection in swingy districts would be concerned about Haitian immigrants, in particular, and (apparently) see it as an important issue for constituents. There was, of course, the whole Trump/Vance shtick from 2024 about Haitians eating cats and dogs. Perhaps these members fear that will come back to life, and it will not be well for them to appear hostile to Haitians. But that is just a guess.

The other theme that runs through the list is "south Florida." Díaz-Balart, Giménez and Salazar all represent districts in the farthest southern part of Florida. It's not too easy to confirm that their districts have some sizable number of Haitian residents/voters, but certainly, if someone fled Haiti for the U.S., south Florida is the first place they would reach. The census does not break populations down by nation of origin, but we did check and confirm that those districts all have a sizable number of Haitian restaurants. So too does GA-07, for that matter. That's at least indirect evidence of a meaningful population of Haitians.

The bill is likely to die in the Senate. And if it doesn't die there, it will be killed by Trump's veto pen. That said, all is not lost for the Haitian refugees. The initial decision to yank their protected status is before the federal courts right now, and so may be restored at the end of one or more judges' gavels.

But the real story here is that this is the eighth successful discharge petition this Congress, which is more than the previous 20 Congresses combined. It is also an act of rebellion, not only against Johnson, but against Trump. As the President's approval rating sinks, and as swing-district members get closer and closer to Election Day, will such acts of rebellion become even more common? It's well within the realm of possibility. (Z)