Dem
47
GOP
53
Just before Trump's 2-week cease fire ended, he unilaterally extended it forever. In other words, he said he would not attack Iran anymore. If he means it—and he might, because the U.S. is running out of munitions—it essentially makes his surrender complete. Iran now has the power to cripple the world economy whenever it wants to, and Trump has agreed to let this status quo stand, at least for now.
The basic facts are these. The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, bombing 13,000 targets. Iran not only didn't beg for mercy, it responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, it attacked three ships in the Strait. Trump is now essentially accepting this situation for the time being and maybe permanently. NBC News' story used this headline.
This boggles the mind. For a guy who claimed he read the ghost-written book The Art of the Deal, he seems not to have learned anything from it. When your opponent is divided, which it might be with the Revolutionary Guard and ayatollahs fighting for power, this is a good time to present your own proposal and insist that it is the starting point for negotiations. Instead Trump is doing nothing even though time is on Iran's side. The last tankers that passed through the Strait have now docked and there is no oil buffer left. If this situation goes on for another few weeks, prices for oil, gas, fertilizer, and other products will shoot up. Iran doesn't care, but American drivers, farmers, and voters certainly do. As time goes on, Iran only gets stronger as pressure builds on Trump to cave even more—for example, to accept the Strait as an Iranian internal waterway and accept whatever tolls it wants to put on ships, potentially payable only in yuan.
Yesterday, Trump posted this bleat to his quasi-official private social media website:
Iran doesn't want the Strait of Hormuz closed, they want it open so they can make $500 Million Dollars a day (which is, therefore, what they are losing if it is closed!). They only say they want it closed because I have it totally BLOCKADED (CLOSED!), so they merely want to 'save face.' People approached me four days ago, saying, 'Sir, Iran wants to open up the Strait, immediately.' But if we do that, there can never be a Deal with Iran, unless we blow up the rest of their Country, their leaders included! President DONALD J. TRUMP
There is much to pick apart here. First, Iran very much wants the Strait closed for the time being, because it shows the world who the real boss is here: Iran. Second, opening it will not make Iran $500 million/day. It is more like $139 million. Third, while saving face is important to Iran, showing the world the power it has is even more important since it will cause a massive geopolitical alignment, reducing American power worldwide. If America can't force a fairly backward medium-size country run by religious zealots who want to take the world back to the 7th century to cave, what chance does it have against a big, modern, country run by intelligent and very rational people (China, we are looking at you). Fourth, Trump said "People approached me ..." Which people? The CEOs of some oil companies? It certainly wasn't the Iranians. Fifth, Trump is no longer thanking us for our attention. Is that because he knows no one is paying attention to him anymore?
The Strait is most definitely still closed, as this graphic from MarineTraffic.com shows:
Yesterday, three ships tried to run the dueling blockades. The Revolutionary Guard, which has its own navy of small "mosquito boats," fired on them. It captured two of them and brought them to Iran. That is probably a big enough lesson for any other ship captain who gets the bright idea to run the blockades. Iran is definitely in charge now, time is on its side, and Trump is stewing because his brilliant plan went totally awry, just as his generals told him it would. He is boxed into a corner and has no way out. And everyone except himself knows it. (V)