Dem
47
GOP
53
Sarah Longwell of The Bulwark, a fierce Trump opponent, keeps saying that the Democrats' goal for this year should be getting Donald Trump below the "Bush line," the 32% approval rating George W. Bush had at the end. That would guarantee a Democratic blowout in November. Longwell is getting close to having her wish come true. In a new AP/NORC poll taken April 16-20, Trump's overall approval is 33%, down substantially from 38% in March. That is almost certainly due to the war in Iran and its effects on the economy. In fact, Trump's approval rating on the economy is now 30%, also down from 38% in March. An approval rating in the 20s on the economy would be absolutely toxic, with dozens of House seats flipping and probably the Senate as well (but see below on that).
Trump is also dismissing the price increases out of hand. He definitely does not feel your pain. Or anybody else's pain. In fact, he is minimizing the disruption, saying that the $90/barrel price of oil is much lower than the $200/barrel he was expecting. What he was expecting is cold comfort to people paying $4.02/gal. for gas today, although that varies enormously by region (e.g., it is $5.72 in California and $3.32 in Oklahoma).
Here is the partisan breakdown on some key issues:
The important part of this is how independents feel. There is no way to win elections without heavy support for independents. The number of partisans available is not enough. Overall, Trump is at 23% approval with independents, with that varying from 12% to 30%, depending on the issue. If we focus only on kitchen table issues—so, not immigration or Iran—the range is 12-19%. James Carville was right: It is (still) the economy, stupid, and 19% is not a good place to be with the crucial bloc of independents.
Bad as Trump's approval is, the legislative branch is even less popular. The approval rate for Congress is now 10% and the disapproval rate is 86%. Apparently, 4% were not aware such a thing as Congress exists. That is not surprising since no one has heard from it in years. However, the generic House ballot has been hovering around D+6 for months. How can this be? Well, Republicans believe that the problem with Congress is that the Democrats are blocking all the good stuff Trump wants. Democrats believe that the Republicans are rubber stamping all the terrible things Trump wants. Independents are somewhat more with the Democrats on this. The low rating is mostly due to Republicans souring on Congress since Trump was sworn in.
None of this is good news for the incumbent party. (V)