Apr.23

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Senate Rundown

We keep the Senate candidates page as up to date as we can. Just click on the "Senate candidates" link above Maine on the map. Nevertheless, once in a while it is worth giving a rundown on the main page, so here goes. A simulation by The Economist gives the Democrats a 46% chance of taking the Senate. So let's look at the senate seats most likely to flip, in the order we think a flip is most likely.

1. North Carolina: When Donald Trump drove Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) out of the race, the Republicans had no Plan B. They knew the Democrats were going to nominate the popular former two-term governor, Roy Cooper, who has won five statewide elections in North Carolina. And the best they could do was an unknown apparatchik, Michael Whatley, who ran the RNC but has never run for elected office before. There have been seven polls of the race so far, and Cooper's worst performance this year has been +5. The most recent poll puts him ahead 50% to 42%. This race could go over $100 million—or the NRSC could see the handwriting on the wall and just abandon Whatley so it can spend on more critical races. It is also worth noting that although Republicans have won the electoral votes since Barack Obama's win in 2008, the governor, lieutenant governor, AG, and SoS of North Carolina are all Democrats. The previous governor (Cooper) is also a Democrat. It really is a purple state.
   
   
2. Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) has more lives than a cat, but even cats eventually hit the end of the line. This could be it for Collins. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) got his dream candidate here Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME). The only problem is that although Maine voters like her, she will turn 79 four days before the new Senate convenes. That is maybe a tad too old to start a Senate career. Luckily for the Democrats, a brash oysterman named Graham Platner decided that bloviating on the Senate floor was an easier job than running after oysters, even though oysters don't run that fast. In the most recent poll, Platner is crushing Mills in the Democratic primary, 61% to 28%. He is also crushing Collins in the general election, 48% to 39%. Susan is concerned. However, she surely remembers how in 2020, Sara Gideon was crushing her in the polls and yet went down in flames. But if there is a blue wave, Collins may have used up all her lives.
   
   
3. Ohio: This is an odd race. Sherrod Brown was a three-term senator who lost when Trump was on the ballot in 2024 and is trying for a comeback. He is very well known in Ohio. The incumbent is Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), who was appointed when J.D. Vance resigned to become vice president. He is much less well known than Brown. And now there is that little matter of the local electricity company that spent $60 million to bribe its way to getting the state to rate electricity rates so it could pull in an extra $1.3 billion. An excellent return on investment, if we do say so. As we discussed Monday, Husted claimed to know nothing about this, but his calendar shows that he met repeatedly with all the people involved, included the corrupt speaker of the House, who is now serving 20 years in federal prison. Polls have Husted up by about 2-3 points, but the trial of the crooked electric company executives will be held starting Sept. 28, putting this back in the news. That could cost Husted a few points.
   
   
4. Alaska: Here we have Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) running against former representative Mary Peltola. Peltola raised $9 million in Q1 2026, four times Sullivan's haul, and Alaska is a cheap state to advertise in. Peltola's $9 million is the largest Q1 haul for a Senate race in Alaska history, which admittedly does not go back to the Pilgrims. There have been three public polls this year and Peltola has led by 2, 2, and 5 points respectively. Alaska is a notoriously difficult state to poll and has an unusual top-four jungle primary followed by a ranked-choice general election, so caution is advised here. Still, Peltola has won statewide before and Alaska is a quirky place. If the Republican brand is toxic in November, it could rub off on Sullivan, who is otherwise a pretty normal Republican.
   
   
5. Montana: This is an open seat, but the backstory is pretty sleazy. The filing deadline in Montana this year was 5:00 p.m. on March 5, 2026. At 4:52 p.m. on March 5, U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme filed to run for the Senate as a Republican. At 4:55 p.m. Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) withdrew from the race. At 5:02 p.m. Daines announced his withdrawal and endorsed Alme. The voters hate this sh**. Besides, nobody has ever heard of Alme. The problem is that the Democratic brand is not great in Montana. Not terrible, like in, say, Wyoming, but not great, either. Fortunately for the Democrats, Seth Bodnar, a former Green Beret and former president of the University of Montana, had earlier decided to run (against Daines). He consulted with former senator Jon Tester and Tester advised him to file as an independent, which he did. Montana Democrats will formally nominate someone, but there is a good chance that person will technically drop out after the filing deadline and the Democrats will all support the "independent" Bodnar (who will undoubted caucus with the Democrats, just like Sens, Angus King, I-ME and Bernie Sanders, I-VT). Because Bodnar is technically an independent and because voters aren't going to like the sneaky trick the Republicans pulled, Bodnar has a real chance, even in a red state like Montana. To make it even worse for the Republicans, conservative voters who understand that Bodnar is a secret Democrat but who hate the trick the Republicans pulled to swap Daines for Alme, have an alternative in the Libertarian Party, where two candidates are battling for the nomination. Every vote the LP gets is one vote from Alme's hide. There haven't been any Bodnar-Alme polls yet but this could be a squeaker.
   
   
6. Texas: The big question here is who will win the May 26 Republican primary. If Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) wins it, he will probably win the general election against James Talarico. Cornyn has already won election to the Senate four times, is reasonably popular, and Texas is Texas. However, if fire-breathing Texas AG Ken Paxton wins the primary, then Katie bar the door. Trump has not endorsed in this race because all the Republican senators probably spend an hour a day praying for Cornyn to win the primary, but the base wants the corrupt Paxton, who was impeached by the Texas House (but not convicted). A poll of the Republican runoff from last Friday has Paxton at 48% and Cornyn at 40%. When the Republican senators see that, they are going to say "sh**" in unison and grudgingly resolve to up it to 2 hours a day praying for Cornyn. A poll from March has Talarico beating Paxton 47% to 45%. The poll also has Talarico beating Cornyn 44% to 43%, but we just don't believe that. Democrats can't win in Texas (or anywhere in the South) statewide unless the Republican is truly horrible (see: Moore, Roy). Paxton fits the bill. Cornyn doesn't. If Paxton wins the primary, the NRSC will have to spend a fortune in very expensive Texas to try to prop up a horrible candidate who is going to have great difficulty winning independents and Democrats. For a summary of Paxton's many misdeeds over the past 20 years, check out this article. If Democrats want to engage in a bit of rodent reproduction, tossing a few nickels in Paxton's piggy bank can't hurt.
   
   
7. Iowa: At a town hall last year, a constituent asked Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) about health care and she replied: "We are all going to die." Wrong answer. Big time wrong answer. She quickly became known as "Joni Hearse" and was forced from the race. The Republicans quickly settled on Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) as their candidate. The Democrats have a fight between two more-or-less interchangeable progressive state legislators, Josh Turek and Zach Wahls. A recent poll has Wahls leading Hinson 46% to 44% and Turek leading her 46% to 45%, so basically a tie, and it doesn't matter which Democrat wins the primary. Iowa has become a red state and, unlike Paxton, there is nothing wrong with Hinson, so she is the probably the favorite, but in a big blue wave, either of the state legislators could eke out a win.
   
   
8. Nebraska: This is a longshot, but independent Dan Osborn has a small chance at knocking off Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE). A poll in late March has Ricketts at 46% and Osborn at 45%. Osborn is more of a true independent than Bodnar in Montana, which may help him in deep red Nebraska. He is not a Democrat in sheep's clothing. But if he should magically beat an incumbent multimillionaire with unlimited campaign funds, it is less certain what he will do in the Senate. He might not caucus with either party. Could Osborn, Bodnar, Sanders, and King form their own Independent Caucus? Seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened. In a closely divided Senate, a four-person Independent Caucus would have massive power.
   

So there you have it for now. We may have a better idea as primary season rolls on. (V)