Dem
47
GOP
53
When Eric Swalwell resigned from Congress, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) instantly scheduled the special election to replace him—because he knew a Democrat would win it. Tony Gonzales resigned from Congress the same day, leaving a vacancy in TX-23. But Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) has not yet scheduled a special election to fill the vacancy. Why? Could Abbott be afraid that a Democrat could win it? He has to schedule it eventually, but he could schedule it for Nov. 3, the same day as the regular election for the term beginning Jan. 3, 2027.
For Abbott it is a tough political decision. On the one hand, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) needs every vote he can get, although the resignation of Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick Tuesday gives him a tiny bit more margin, as does the death of David Scott (see below). That argues for Abbott to schedule the special election as soon as possible. On the other hand, TX-23 is only R+7 and the Democrats have been overperforming by more than 7 points in all the special elections so far. Abbott may be genuinely scared that a Democrat could win the district, especially since it uses the old (2020) map. If that were to happen, Republicans all over the country would be wetting their pants. He could easily be thinking it is better to keep the seat open until November than risk an actual loss.
The Democratic nominee for the next Congress, Katy Padilla Stout, wants the special election right now and would run in it if it were called. She said: "We are demanding that Governor Abbott immediately call a special election." She said that by stalling, Abbott is denying the people of the sprawling TX-23 district the representation to which they are entitled. Jon Taylor, a professor of political science at the University of Texas San Antonio, said that Abbott is making the decision to call/not call a special election before Nov. 3 based on partisan considerations. We completely agree. If he thought a Republican could win it now, he would call it in a flash. His hesitation strongly suggests he is not so sure about that. (V)