Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump is at an impasse. He doesn't know what to do about Iran and he is stuck. He probably dimly senses that he has to get some serious concession from Iran in order to avoid giving the Democrats a potent talking point in the midterms. He probably also dimly senses that Iran has little to no interest in giving him anything unless it gets much more in return. Iran also realizes that time is on its side now that all the ships that passed through the Strait of Hormuz since February have already docked and unloaded and there are no more ships from the Persian Gulf underway. It is fully prepared to wait Trump out.
So what has Trump done? He first told his A team (J.D. Vance) not to go to Pakistan to negotiate a deal. Then he told his B team (real estate buddy Steve Witkoff and first son-in-law Jared Kushner) not to go either. Instead, Trump went on Fox and said: "If they want to talk, they can come to us. You know, there is a telephone." We don't know if Fox is available in Iran. We suspect not. He should have put up a bleat on his the-art-of-no-deal negotiating site. Maybe the ayatollahs follow that closely. In any event, Trump is now waiting for Iran to make a move.
Suppose it doesn't? Then what? Oil prices will go up, the stock market might go down, and still no call. Iran has
Trump over a barrel oil drum. He could restart the bombing, but Iran has shown a massive pain threshold and is
unlikely to budge no matter how severe the bombing is. Besides, the U.S. is running out of bombs and pressure on Trump to
do something will only grow.
What Trump might try to do is get Iran to agree to open the Strait of Hormuz but allow them to put a toll on every ship passing through. Iran might agree to that, knowing that it can use the revenue to prop up the regime and also buy weapons from China. It would be hard to sell that to the American people, though, since the results of the war would be: (1) 13 dead American soldiers, (2) a new revenue stream for Iran, (3) higher oil prices worldwide, and (4) Iran continues enriching uranium. There would be no way America would be better off under that deal than it was before the attack. Democrats will have a field day with that.
Meanwhile, Iran is not standing still. It sent its foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, to Russia for talks with Vladimir Putin. Aragchi may ask for money, food, weapons, and other help, and may well get it. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, stopping shipments of food and other supplies. Russia could send supplies to Iran over the Caspian Sea, which borders both countries or via land through Azerbaijan. (V)