Dem 47
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GOP 53
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The Battle of New York

The Democrats have periodic "Bernie vs. Hillary" battles (e.g., in the Maine Senate race), but the Republicans have plenty of intramural battles as well. Consider, for example, NY-21, a massive district covering most of the state north of Amsterdam and Rome, and larger than New Jersey and Connecticut combined. It is R+10 and currently represented by the retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik (R).

The battle over her successor is very heated. Donald Trump has endorsed the CEO of Sticker Mule, Anthony Constantino, because he is a real fighter, as you can see from this photo from his campaign website. He is the one in the middle:

Anthony Constantino; he's participating in a UFC event, and is shirtless and muscular'

Constantino has also been endorsed by Rudy Giuliani and Roger Stone. Most of his campaign promises are generic Republican promises (eliminate waste in government, bring down prices, protect the Second Amendment, etc.) but he has a few special ones, including "permanently secure the northern border," and "inspire people to live here again." The latter one kind of implies people don't like living in this district and are leaving in droves. We wonder why.

New York Republican officials want Constantino to drop out and go back tot he gym. Even though the district is R+10, they are worried that in a blue wave, it could get swamped. Even the chair of the New York Conservative Party, Jerry Kassar, said of Trump: "We just simply feel that on this one he got it wrong." This gives you an idea of how bad Constantino is, when party officials and conservatives are worried about a rural R+10 district. They support Assemblyman Robert Smullen, a retired Marine Corps colonel Constantino has called a coward, even though he (Smullen) fought in Afghanistan. In Constantino's eyes, Smullen has not been sufficiently Trumpy, which makes him a coward.

The Democrats are running a local dairy farmer, Blake Gendebien. Normally, a Democrat doesn't have much of a chance in the North Country, but with a bitter fight between a Trump-Giuliani-Stone-endorsed candidate on one side, and virtually the entire state Republican establishment on the other, Constantino could possibly come out victorious and badly damaged, making a Democratic flip in November possible. (V)



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