Dem
47
GOP
53
Whenever we write about U.S. Senate races in Texas, we feel a little bit like Charlie Brown trying to kick that football, the one that Lucy always yanks away at the last minute. The Democrats tend to come up with a scrappy, young, charismatic centrist who has the potential to attract independent and maybe even moderate Republican voters. The Republicans run a candidate with serious baggage, whether that baggage is that the candidate is a loathsome a**hole, or is insufficiently MAGA for the base, or is a corrupt sleazeball. Couple a matchup like that with the supposed "bluing" of the Lone Star State, and it seems like the Democrats might just kick that football this time. And yet, they never do (at least, not since Lloyd Bentsen won in 1988).
Still, we're suckers for an interesting political race. And we certainly have to write about Texas, since the road to potential Democratic control of the Senate may run right through there. So, we will note the new poll from Texas Public Opinion Research, which certainly is going to gladden the hearts of members of the blue team.
The topline number(s) from the poll are these: state Rep. James Talarico (D) comes out on top of a hypothetical matchup with either of the two leading Republicans. Against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), he's up 44% to 41%, with 11% undecided and 4% favoring other candidates. Against state AG Ken Paxton (R), he's up 46% to 41%, with 9% undecided and 4% favoring other candidates. Neither lead is "commanding," though both are outside the ±2.5 point margin of error for the poll.
There has not been a lot of polling of the potential head-to-head matchups, because most pollsters are more interested right now in the Paxton vs. Cornyn matchup. And what polling there has been is mostly a couple of months old. However, one tentative conclusion is that Talarico has at least a little momentum right now. He consistently trailed both Paxton and Cornyn by a few points, and now the Democrat has flipped the script, in at least this one poll.
The poll also supports the general assumption that Cornyn gives the GOP a better chance than Paxton does. That said, it looks like it's a slightly better chance, rather than a vastly better chance. It is true that in a race that is very close, an extra point or two in the voting could be decisive. It is also true, however, that even if Cornyn goes on to win a nail-biter, the GOP will have spent nine figures to save him. That's money that can't be used on all the other critical, competitive races.
We should also take a quick look at the crosstabs of the new poll. First, the roughly 10% of voters who are undecided could be, and probably will be, well... decisive, ironically enough. According to the pollster's breakdown, Talarico is doing very well with Latino voters, in addition to the usual Black and college-educated voters. That is good news for him, since that would represent a swing from what happened in 2024. Also, Talarico remains the least-known of the three major-party candidates, which means he still has room to grow his support as more voters get to know him. Cornyn and Paxton are both known pretty much universally.
And speaking of Cornyn and Paxton, maybe part of the problem is Donald Trump and/or the Republican brand. But the bigger part of the problem is... Cornyn and Paxton. The same poll reports that Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) is comfortably ahead of Gina Hinojosa (D), 48% to 43%. Clearly, this wasn't just an unusually blue sample of voters. Further, Abbott has a net favorability of +2 (48% approve to 46% disapprove). He's not widely beloved, but it's clear that he's MAGA enough to keep the Trumpers on board, and yet he's not so corrupt he's pushing away the moderate Republicans.
By contrast, Cornyn and Paxton are the two most unpopular Republicans in the state. Paxton's net approval is -10 (36% approve to 46% disapprove), while Cornyn's is -15 (33% approve to 48% disapprove). The only entity that's truly down there in the basement with them is the Democratic Party, which is at -12 (42% approve to 54% disapprove). Since Talarico is a Democrat, that's bad news for him, right? Possibly, though "the party" tends to always get more scorn than individual members of the party. The pollster also asked about "a Democratic candidate running for office," and while the Democratic Party is 12 points underwater, a person running for office as a member of the Democratic Party is only 4 points underwater (42% approve to 46% disapprove). Meanwhile, Talarico himself is 7 points above water (41% approve to 34% disapprove). That puts him 17 points up on Paxton and 22 points up on Cornyn.
So, at least based on the current information, Paxton might just pull this thing out. And now, if you'll excuse us, we have to go practice our field goal kicking. (Z)