Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump and most of the Kentucky Republican establishment are trying to defeat Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who is a conservative Republican but still a huge thorn in Trump's side. It is far from certain that Massie is dead meat in KY-04, which is part well-off Cincinnati suburbs and part rural. He is a big supporter of the Second Amendment, has fought to ease meat processing requirements, which would benefit farmers in his district, and is well known for trying to get the Epstein files out there, which is popular among the MAGA base. He also opposes the war in Iran, which aligns well with his constituents' wishes. Massie knows his district well and is constantly barnstorming, so many voters know him personally.
Trump is supporting combat veteran and dairy farmer Ed Gallrein, who has never run for public office before and is not well known in the district. Still, national Republicans have poured vastly more money into Gallrein's campaign than a Republican primary in an R+18 district would justify on political grounds. Why waste money on a primary when the GOP can't possibly lose the seat no matter who wins the primary?
Despite Trump throwing everything he has at Massie, it might not work. A Quantus Insights poll from early April shows Massie with a 9-point lead over Gallrein. Half the voters want an independent-minded representative vs. 37% who want anyone who will support Trump. And how Trumpy is Gallrein, really? In 2016, just after Trump won the nomination, Gallrein changed his party registration from Republican to independent, in protest. That has come up a couple of times. The primary is May 19. (V)