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The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Donald Trump is telling his aides to be prepared for an "extended" blockage of Iranian ports. Iran wants to go back to the 7th century and Trump is willing to meet them about halfway. Siege warfare, which is what he is aiming at, went out of style in the 15th century when the widespread availability of gunpowder made it possible for the attackers to blow up a castle's walls rather than waiting until the residents starved to death.
It is not likely to work now for two reasons. First, Iran's leaders—assuming it actually has any leaders right now, with the ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guard duking it out—know that even if food, medicine, and other supplies run low, the people will not rise up against them. In January, when the people rose up against the regime, the military killed an estimated 30,000 people in cold blood. If they had to kill 300,000 to stay in power, they would not hesitate for a nanosecond. Assuming they know what a nanosecond is; after all, they didn't have nanoseconds in the 7th century. If you are having trouble visualizing a nanosecond, just remember that in a vacuum light travels almost 1 foot in a nanosecond. (V) thinks we should redefine the foot to be the distance light travels in a vacuum in 1 nanosecond.
Second, Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, just visited Russia, presumably to ask Vladimir Putin for food, munitions, and other things. They can be delivered either over the Caspian Sea or overland through Azerbaijan. It is a 40-hour drive from Moscow to Tehran. Just take the M-4 south, turn left at Ленина, and keep going south until you hit Baku, then it is just 10 more hours. Easy peasy.
Trump thinks he can absorb more pain than the Iranians. Our guess is that is not true. If gas hits $6/gal. in Tehran, people will peep, but won't dare do anything. If it hits that in Texarkana, the locals will do more than peep. They will register to vote if they are not already registered. Trump knows that the House is probably already lost, but if he loses the Senate, too, no more of his judges or justices will be confirmed, and there will be an actual trial every time the House impeaches him. Here is a chart with the average national gas price for the past year from Gas Buddy. As you can see, the average price has gone up 32¢ in the past 10 days. Crude oil is now $126/barrel. How much more of this can Trump tolerate?
If a few weeks go by with no peace, no war, Trump might be tempted to start the bombing again, even if the generals warn him that munitions are running low. The U.S. has already bombed 13,000 primary targets. If Iran withstood that, it is very unlikely that hitting 13,000 secondary targets will force it into submission. Meanwhile, they will turn around and attack the oil infrastructure in the U.A.E., Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia with Shahed-136 drones. That will guarantee high oil prices for months or years to come. As an oil-exporting country, Iran wouldn't mind that at all. If the U.S. bombed Iran's oil infrastructure, China would no doubt be happy to make a deal like: "We'll rebuild it in exchange for future oil." (V)