Dem
47
GOP
53
One underreported aspect of the shooting at the WHCD on Saturday is that almost everyone in the line of succession was there. Probably not a good idea. Suppose that instead of a crazed lone gunman, Iran had sent one or more suicide bombers armed with deadly bombs, poison gas, or something that had wiped out everyone in the room? That would include Donald Trump, J.D. Vance and Mike Johnson. In that case, the 92-year-old President Pro Tempore of the Senate, Chuck Grassley (R-IA) (who wasn't there) would become president. Well, unless Grassley thought he was incapable of discharging the duties of the president for 3 years and refused the job. In that case Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins would become president as she would be the next-highest-ranking survivor. No doubt someday the U.S. will have a female president, but this wouldn't be the greatest way to do it. Here is the order of succession as determined by law.
While this wasn't a near miss, it could have been, and ought to generate some discussion. First, given the Pro Tem's high ranking in the list, maybe the Senate majority leader should always be the Pro Tem, not the oldest person in town. The majority leader has the job due to support of the majority caucus, not because he is the most senior member of the majority party. This is said with all due respect to Grassley, who is a competent senator, but the idea that someone who is 90+ should be third in line for the presidency is not a good idea in general. From 2001 to 2003, Strom Thurmond was the Pro Tem and he was 100 at the end. Also at the end he probably couldn't have told the difference between the White House and the Waffle House.
Second, the president, vice president and House speaker should probably not be in the same place at the same time (other than the White House) unless there is a very compelling reason. It is just too risky. A dinner for reporters is not a compelling reason. Maybe the State of the Union address is a compelling reason. Maybe not.
Third, number 7 in line is the attorney general. Suppose the first six were either dead or refused but #7 survived. Then Todd Blanche could have said: "Looks like I'm president. C'mon over, Mr. Chief Justice, to swear me in." But what if Rollins had said: "Whoa! You aren't AG. You are the acting AG. I am now president." Could get messy.
Clearly the Presidential Succession Act needs to be updated to clarify this. The obvious bug fix is to state that only a cabinet member who has been confirmed by the Senate for his or her current position is in the line of succession. Nonconfirmation wouldn't be the only reason a cabinet officer is skipped. A 32-year-old secretary cannot be president, nor can one who was not native born. For example, Alejandro Mayorkas, who was Secretary of Homeland Security in the Biden administration, was born in Cuba. Elaine Chao and Carlos Gutierrez are other recent cabinet officers who are not native-born and thus ineligible to succeed to the presidency.
Another potential way out if Grassley became president and didn't think he was up to the job would have been for him to accept and be sworn in. Then, his first act could have been to nominate a much younger vice president. As soon as that person was confirmed by both chambers of Congress, Grassley could resign and let the new president pick his or her own veep. (V)