Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday, Florida legislators approved a new congressional map that might give Republicans four more House seats. This one is a little bit tricky because the Florida Constitution specifically bans partisan gerrymanders and it is tough to make a case that this one is not a partisan gerrymander. The problem is that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) said the purpose of the map was to elect more Republicans. If the Florida Supreme Court makes an unusual decision to follow the state Constitution and not just do what the governor wants, Florida will almost certainly appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. That Court has viewed partisan gerrymanders as perfectly all right if that is what the people's representatives want.
The courts need to move fast because candidates need to know what the map looks like so they can decide where to file. The primaries are in August, but absentee ballots go out weeks in advance. There is no time to waste.
If the new map holds, Republicans will probably get 24 of the 28 U.S. House seats in Florida (86%). In the 2024 election, Republicans got 58% of the statewide vote for U.S. House seats. If the Supreme Court upholds that, we may get another round of gerrymandering next year. The end game here is to make the House like the electoral college: Whenever a party controls the trifecta in a state, it gets all the House seats, the people be damned. That is not exactly what James Madison and friends had in mind.
However, in an extreme blue wave, it is possible that some of the districts have been diluted so much that long-time incumbents in not-quite-so-red-anymore districts could get swept away. But it would take a very big wave for that to happen. As noted above, Democrats lead in the generic poll by 10 points. If that holds, that would be big enough to turn the map into a dummymander. (V)