Aug.01

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Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Governors, Part II: Control of the House Could Begin, and End, with These Four Races

As we have noted a number of times, races that are theoretically independent often are correlated. Typically all, or most, of the swing states end up going in the same direction. The underlying factors that affect voters in, say, Nevada, such as gas prices, also impact voters in Michigan and Maine. But sometimes there are other correlations as well. In four states this year, the races for governor could affect control of the House, even though none of the gubernatorial candidates are running for the House. Let's take a look:

• Colorado: Republican strategists here are having flashbacks to 2022, when Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO) beat Heidi Ganahl (R) by 20 points. That was enough to pull Yadira Caraveo barely over the line in the newly minted CO-08. This year, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee is state AG Phil Weiser. The Republican is minister Victor Marx, who has the uncanny ability to exorcise (not exercise) demons over the phone. He killed a man at 7, but refused to tell a reporter how many people he has killed as an adult. He is not the ideal candidate in a blue state against a popular AG who has twice won comfortable victories statewide.
  
  The tightest race will probably be CO-08 (EVEN), where Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO) is defending against DSA member Manny Rutinel (D). If Weiser wins by 15 or 20 points he could help knock off Evans, as well as GOP Reps. Jeff Hurd (CO-03, R+5) and Jeff Crank (CO-05, R+5). Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) picked an R+9 district to run in, so she is probably safe.
  
  
• Iowa: Iowa, normally a red state in recent years, has a surprising number of competitive races this time, starting at the top. State Auditor Rob Sand (D) is leading businessman Zach Lahn (R) by 2 to 12 points in recent polls. If the election were now, Sand would be the first Democrat to win the Iowa governor's race in 20 years. That could matter downballot.
  
  Right now, all four House seats have Republicans sitting in them, but while the state as a whole is quite red, most of the Republicans are in the western part of Iowa. IA-04 (Sioux City, Council Bluffs, and Ames) is R+15. The other three districts are competitive. In IA-01 (R+4), the repeat matchup between Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) and Christina Bohannan looks like a tossup. In 2024, Miller-Meeks won by 799 votes. IA-03 (R+2) is also very competitive. There, Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA) is facing Sarah Trone Garriott (D). It could go either way. IA-02 (R+4) is Ashley Hinson's open seat. That one is Lindsay James (D) vs. Joe Mitchell (R).
  
  
• Pennsylvania: In 2022, state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) ran for governor against now-Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA). The Republican establishment was concerned that Mastriano would drag the whole ticket down. He lost by 15 points and probably saved Democratic Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-PA), Chris DeLuzio (D-PA) and Susan Wild (D-PA). They all barely made it. With a stronger Republican on top of the ticket, they might all have gone down in flames.
  
  Republicans are worried that this year's GOP nominee for governor, Stacy Garrity, won't be any better, and could sink four Republican House incumbents, Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01, D+1), Ryan Mackenzie (PA-07, R+1), Rob Bresnahan Jr. (PA-08, R+4), and Scott Perry (PA-10, R+3). All of them are vulnerable and could go under if Shapiro again wins by 15 points. In four recent polls, Garrity's best performance was 40%, even worse than the 42% Mastriano got in 2022. In those polls, the results were Shapiro +13, Shapiro +14, Shapiro +14, and Shapiro +17. In Pennsylvania, statewide races, such as governor, are listed ahead of House races.
  
  
• Wisconsin: Here it is the other way. The Republicans are licking their chops at the possibility of the Democrats nominating progressive state Rep. Francesca Hong (D) for governor (see above). It has been a wild race, with Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez getting in and then getting out, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, getting in, getting out, and getting back in again. And then, of course, Mandela Barnes dropped out.
  
  The close races that could be affected by the top of the ticket both have Republican incumbents defending their seats, namely Bryan Steil (WI-01, R+2) and Derrick Van Orden (WI-03, R+3). Since Rep. Tim Tiffany (R-WI) is running for governor, his WI-07 seat is open, but the district in the northwest part of the state is R+11.

The reality these days is that split tickets are now rare. It's all (D) or all (R) for most voters. And their vote is usually determined by the person on top of the ballot. And when they do split their ticket, that is generally when the candidate for the lower office is very well known and popular—for example, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) winning in 2024 even though Donald Trump won Wisconsin. Mere House members don't have enough personality to overcome partisan forces. (V)