Aug.03

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Primary Season Is Back on

The next 3 weeks will see multiple primaries and will almost get us to the end of the primary season. After Aug. 18, all that is left is the Oklahoma runoff on Aug. 25, and primaries in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Delaware in the first half of September. Let's look at what's at stake tomorrow:

• Michigan: This is the big one. The future of the Democratic Party could hinge on it. The Democratic Senate primary is down to two millennial candidates, moderate Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) and progressive former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. The two are very different and the stakes are very high here. The race has become a proxy for the ongoing battle for control of the Democratic Party. Progressives are tired of moderates who refuse (or are unable) to effect any needed change in the country. Moderates are tired of progressives who can win Democratic primaries but can't win general elections outside of very blue districts and states. In this race, both candidates are backed by numerous politicians and outside groups.
  
  Beside the ideological divide between the candidates, Israel is playing a big role in the campaign. AIPAC has bought a lot of ads to support Stevens, even though the ads don't mention Israel. El-Sayed has attacked Stevens over and over on this support. Stevens says she is a proud pro-Israel Democrat. El-Sayed says Israel has committed genocide and the U.S. should cut off all support for that nation.
  
  Another issue is the candidates' past. Stevens was one of the key people in the battle to save the auto industry when it almost went under in 2008. El-Sayed is a millionaire author and podcaster and something of a showboater. Stevens is a low-key workhorse.
  
  The Democratic establishment is doing everything it can to support Stevens because polls are showing former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) beating El-Sayed soundly in the general election, whereas Stevens vs. Rogers is a toss-up. The establishment is worried that the young progressives' goal is to take over the Democratic Party, and if they have to lose Senate seats, governors' mansions, and House seats to Republicans in the process, so be it. If true, that would make the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) the lefty version of the tea party.
  
  There are four possible outcomes here:
  
  
  • Stevens wins the primary and wins the general election: The status quo is maintained.
  • Stevens wins the primary and loses the general election: Progressives scream "We told you so."
  • El-Sayed wins the primary and the general election: Progressives begin their takeover of the party.
  • El-Sayed wins the primary and loses the general election: The establishment politely says: "The voters don't want what you are selling."
  
  There is also a hot primary in MI-07, a district with a PVI of EVEN, in which three Democrats are battling to unseat Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI). The candidates are activist and DSA member William Lawrence, former ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, and former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam. Lawrence is very progressive but has made some remarks that upset the Congressional Black Caucus, which has called on voters not to support him. Brink is somewhat progressive but not a DSA-er like Lawrence. Maasdam is more moderate and has been endorsed by Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who formerly represented that district. Maasdam has called Brink a spoiler by running and splitting the moderate vote, possibly letting Lawrence become the nominee in an EVEN district he could well lose. Once again, if Michigan had ranked choice voting people could make a point without throwing away an otherwise winnable seat.
  
  
• Missouri: In MO-01 (St. Louis), the fire-breathing Cori "Defund the Police" Bush wants her old job back and is facing Wesley Bell, who took it from her. He is now the incumbent and the favorite. If he hangs on, it will be a strong counter-example to progressives knocking off moderates in deep-blue districts. MO-01 is D+29. Bell is backed by the entire Democratic Party leadership, past and present, and AIPAC. Bush is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), former Rep. Jamaal Bowman, Hasan Piker and many left-wing groups.
  
  MO-02 (St. Louis suburbs, Franklin County) is represented by Ann Wagner (R-MO). It is R+4 so it could be competitive. However, all four Democrats are unknown, so Wagner will probably get another term.
  
  The recently regerrymandered MO-05 has a crowded Republican primary with six candidates battling to take on Emanuel Cleaver, who is now in a much less blue district around Kansas City. All of the other districts are heavily gerrymandered so there isn't much action there.
  
  
• Virginia: Virginia Democrats redrew the map and then the State Supreme Court said: NOPE! So we are back to the 2024 map. Nevertheless, Democrats have a shot at knocking off Republican Reps. Rob Wittman (VA-01, R+3), Jen Kiggans (VA-02, EVEN) and John McGuire (VA-05, R+6).
  
  Seven Democrats are running in VA-01. County Attorney Shannon Taylor appears to be leading. In VA-02, former Rep. Elaine Luria (D) wants her old job back and is the favorite to get the nomination so she can try. In VA-05, former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) is trying for a comeback against two opponents.
  
  Three Republicans are fighting for the chance to unseat Rep. Eugene Vindman (VA-07, D+2). Two of them are church ministers and the other one is Doug Ollivant, a former member of the National Security Council. He is probably the favorite.
  
  
• Washington: Washington has a top-two all-party primary system, like California. The most endangered representative is Blue Dog Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) in WA-03, an R+2 district in southwest Washington. She is being challenged by progressive candidate Brent Hennrich. But here is where the top-two primary cuts in. All Democrats and all Republicans get to vote in the primary. Getting votes only from progressive Democrats might not be enough for Hennrich. Three Republicans are in the mix. State Senate Minority Leader John Braun has Donald Trump's endorsement.
  
  In WA-09 (Renton, Kent, Auburn), Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) is being challenged by two progressives, Kshama Sawant and Melissa Chaudhry, but they could split the progressive vote. The district is D+22, so it will stay in Democratic hands no matter what happens in the primary.
  
  
• Kansas: A godawful number of Democrats have filed to challenge Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS). What's the point? The last time a Democrat was elected to the Senate from Kansas was in 1932.
  
  The race for governor is different. Democrats can win that. The current (term-limited) governor, Laura Kelly, is a Democrat. State Sens. Ethan Corson and Cindy Holscher and Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog are running for the Democratic nomination for governor. Kelly supports Corson, as do the Kansas AFL-CIO, End Citizens United and Planned Parenthood. Nevertheless, Holscher is leading in the polls. She is pretty liberal for Kansas. On the Republican side, six candidates filed. Donald Trump has endorsed the president of the state Senate, Ty Masterson. SoS Scott Schwab is also running. Interestingly enough, data centers have become a big issue. Both Holscher and Masterson have supported them and insurgents in both parties are attacking them on those votes.
  
  The only House race that could be competitive is KS-03 (D+2), where Rep. Sharice Davids (D-KS) is running again. Two Republicans have filed, former Shawnee city council president Eric Jenkins and Army veteran Chase LaPorte.
  
  There is also an interesting constitutional amendment on the ballot. Republicans want state Supreme Court justices to be elected rather than appointed. The reason for this is that they don't like some of the decisions the Court has made recently. Basically, it is not as subservient to them as the U.S. Supreme Court is. Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) opposes the measure, saying that the judiciary is already politicized enough, as demonstrated by the huge amount of money spent in Supreme Court elections in Wisconsin.

All eyes are going to be on the two Michigan races. Count on it. (V)